Influence of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation on wintertime surface air temperature and cold surges in east Asia

Jeong, Jee‐Hoon; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Baek-Min; Kwon, Won‐Tae

doi:10.1029/2004jd005408

Cited by 110 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Consequently, the poleward temperature gradients in the region have lessened, which in turn has weakened the westerly component of upper-level winds (Outten and Esau 2012). Warming also raised GPHs aloft, which augmented the upper-level ridge east of the Ural Mountains and strengthened the Siberian high (Takaya and Nakamura 2005a;Takano et al 2008;Jeong et al 2011;Inoue et al 2012;Son et al 2012;Cohen et al 2014;Kim et al 2014;Mori et al 2014). Evidence of an increased frequency in amplified jet stream events during OctoberDecember is presented in Fig.…”

Section: Recent East Asia Cold Surges Associated With Regional Sea Icmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…The strength of the winter East Asian monsoon is closely linked with cold-air outbreaks over East Asia, which are often accompanied by snow and severe socioeconomic impacts. East Asian cold surges are influenced by large-scale teleconnections through the AO (Jeong and Ho 2005;Park et al 2008Park et al , 2011, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Chen et al 2004), and the Madden-Julian oscillation (Jeong et al 2005). The atmospheric circulation during the negative phase of the AO favors cold-surge development through intensification of the Siberian high and deepening of the East Asian coastal trough (Gong et al 2001;Jeong and Ho 2005).…”

Section: Recent East Asia Cold Surges Associated With Regional Sea Icmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…East Asian cold surges are influenced by large-scale teleconnections through the AO (Jeong and Ho 2005;Park et al 2008Park et al , 2011, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Chen et al 2004), and the Madden-Julian oscillation (Jeong et al 2005). The atmospheric circulation during the negative phase of the AO favors cold-surge development through intensification of the Siberian high and deepening of the East Asian coastal trough (Gong et al 2001;Jeong and Ho 2005). Over the last decade, cold-air outbreaks in winter have occurred more frequently over East Asia, and they are stronger and longer lasting than in the 1990s, consistent with a more dominant negative phase of the AO .…”

Section: Recent East Asia Cold Surges Associated With Regional Sea Icmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Melting Arctic and Midlatitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?*

et al. 2015

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The potential of recent Arctic changes to influence hemispheric weather is a complex and controversial topic with considerable uncertainty, as time series of potential linkages are short (,10 yr) and understanding involves the relative contribution of direct forcing by Arctic changes on a chaotic climatic system. A way forward is through further investigation of atmospheric dynamic mechanisms. During several exceptionally warm Arctic winters since 2007, sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas initiated eastward-propagating wave trains of high and low pressure. Anomalous high pressure east of the Ural Mountains advected Arctic air over central and eastern Asia, resulting in persistent cold spells. Blocking near Greenland related to low-level temperature anomalies led to northerly flow into eastern North America, inducing persistent cold periods. Potential Arctic connections in Europe are less clear. Variability in the North Pacific can reinforce downstream Arctic changes, and Arctic amplification can accentuate the impact of Pacific variability. The authors emphasize multiple linkage mechanisms that are regional, episodic, and based on amplification of existing jet stream wave patterns, which are the result of a combination of internal variability, lower-tropospheric temperature anomalies, and midlatitude teleconnections. The quantitative impact of Arctic change on midlatitude weather may not be resolved within the foreseeable future, yet new studies of the changing Arctic and subarctic low-frequency dynamics, together with additional Arctic observations, can contribute to improved skill in extended-range forecasts, as planned by the WMO Polar Prediction Project (PPP).

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Section: Recent East Asia Cold Surges Associated With Regional Sea Icmentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Recent East Asia Cold Surges Associated With Regional Sea Icmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Recent East Asia Cold Surges Associated With Regional Sea Icmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Melting Arctic and Midlatitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?*

et al. 2015

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“…MJO-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies may reinforce the amplification of moderate to extreme cold surges. Therefore, the MJO modulates wintertime precipitation and temperature in East Asia [14,15]. In summer, the MJO derived from the tropical Indian Ocean induces an intensification of the westerlies in the South China Sea, triggering the monsoon surge in the southern part of China.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation activity anomalies on Yunnan’s extreme drought of 2009–2010

Ju²,

Ren³

et al. 2011

Sci. China Earth Sci.

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Yunnan Province of China suffered a record-breaking drought that persisted from autumn 2009 into spring 2010. The present study examined the physical causes of this extreme drought event in terms of persistent anomalies of intraseasonal oscillation in the tropical atmosphere (the Madden-Julian Oscillation hereafter the MJO). The results show that the occurrence of severe drought in Yunnan was caused directly by deficient rainfall lasting from the summer of 2009 to the spring of 2010. Further exploration reveals a persistent positive variation of MJO index 1 from June to October. Accordingly, the convective activity over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) weakened continuously, and then an anomalous descending airflow was induced over the tropical Indian Ocean, resulted in the anomalous weakening of vertical Asian monsoon circulation in South Asia. Consequently, the transport of water vapor from the tropical Indian Ocean to Yunnan decreased abnormally, leading to persistent below-normal rainfall over Yunnan from summer to autumn in 2009. As a result, a severe drought began to appear in autumn. In the winter of 2009-2010, MJO index 1 remained persistently positive, indicating the continuous weakening of convective activity over the BOB. The atmospheric circulation associated with the persistent positive anomalies in the MJO also demonstrated anomalous patterns. Specifically, there was an anomalous high-pressure ridge stretching from South Asia through the Tibetan Plateau and into the western part of southwestern China. This indicates that the atmospheric circulation over Yunnan was dominated by vertical descending airflow in the high-pressure ridge. Simultaneously, the India-Burma trough was weakened, which resulted in unfavorable conditions for the transport of water vapor from the BOB to Yunnan, causing the observed persistent deficient precipitation in winter and the subsequently intensified drought. Therefore, the persistent anomalies in MJO activity in the tropical atmosphere played an important role in the occurrence of the extreme drought event in Yunnan in 2009-2010. Yunnan, extreme drought, MJO, persistent anomalies Citation: Lü J M, Ju J H, Ren J Z, et al. The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation activity anomalies on Yunnan's extreme drought of

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“…Recent study also found that the spatial pattern and magnitude of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over East Asia change significantly with MJO phases [56]. Whether or not the MJO modes influence the SAT extremes is worth further examination.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Madden–Julian Oscillation upon Winter Extreme Rainfall in Southern China: Observations and Predictability in CFSv2

Ren

2017

Atmosphere

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Abstract:The impact of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) upon extreme rainfall in southern China was studied using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and daily precipitation data from high-resolution stations in China. The probability-distribution function (PDF) of November-March rainfall in southern China was found to be skewed toward larger (smaller) values in phases 2-3 (6-7) of MJO, during which the probability of extreme rainfall events increased (reduced) by 30-50% (20-40%) relative to all days in the same season. Physical analysis indicated that the favorable conditions for generating extreme rainfall are associated with southwesterly moisture convergence and vertical moisture advection over southern China, while the direct contributions from horizontal moisture advection are insignificant. Based on the above results, the model-based predictability for extreme rainfall in winter was examined using hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) of NOAA. It is shown that the modulations of MJO on extreme rainfall are captured and forecasted well by CFSv2, despite the existence of a relatively small bias. This study suggests the feasibility of deriving probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall in southern China based on RMM indices.

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Influence of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation on wintertime surface air temperature and cold surges in east Asia

Cited by 110 publications

References 25 publications

The Melting Arctic and Midlatitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?*

The Melting Arctic and Midlatitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?*

The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation activity anomalies on Yunnan’s extreme drought of 2009–2010

Impact of Madden–Julian Oscillation upon Winter Extreme Rainfall in Southern China: Observations and Predictability in CFSv2

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