Influences of Rainfall and Temperature on Malaria Endemicity in Cameroon: Emphasis on Bonaberi District

fosah, Sharlot; Mbouna, Amelie D.; Efon, Eric; Achu, Doroty Fosah; Lenouo, André; Dikandé, Alain M.

doi:10.4236/gep.2022.103004

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…It showed that, although the VECTRI model tends to overestimate prevalence, the spatial pattern of simulated malaria prevalence rates by the VECTRI model is directly comparable to the gold standard datasets for spatial malaria risk estimation (MAP). Additionally, it is worth mentioning that the VECTRI model has been successfully validated in various African countries, including Uganda, Rwanda, Malawi, Kenya, Ghana, and Cameroon, as demonstrated by previous studies [12,[16][17][18]. These studies have shown satisfactory results in terms of the model's performance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…All the CMIP6 models used in this study, except for the BCC-CSM2-MR model, demonstrate a consistent peak in September. Generally, the occurrence of malaria cases aligns with a combination of high temperatures and rainfall [18,[74][75][76]. The development of the Plasmodium sporogonic This figure provides valuable insights into the seasonal variations and trends of the EIR in Senegal over the specified time period, contributing to a better understanding of disease dynamics and potential impacts on public health.…”

Section: Vectri Model's Performance With Observed Malaria Cases In Se...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All the CMIP6 models used in this study, except for the BCC-CSM2-MR model, demonstrate a consistent peak in September. Generally, the occurrence of malaria cases aligns with a combination of high temperatures and rainfall [18,[74][75][76]. The development of the Plasmodium sporogonic stage varies depending on climatic conditions, lasting between 9 and 20 days (at temperatures ranging from 30 • C to 20 • C) [77].…”

Section: Vectri Model's Performance With Observed Malaria Cases In Se...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Enhancing Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria in West Africa Using the Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI) and the Bias-Corrected Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP6)

Fall,

Diouf,

Deme

et al. 2023

Microbiology Research

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In sub-Saharan Africa, temperatures are generally conducive to malaria transmission, and rainfall provides mosquitoes with optimal breeding conditions. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa using community-based vector-borne disease models, TRIeste (VECTRI). This VECTRI model, based on bias-corrected data from the Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), was used to simulate malaria parameters, such as the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Due to the lack of data on confirmed malaria cases throughout West Africa, we first validated the forced VECTRI model with CMIP6 data in Senegal. This comparative study between observed malaria data from the National Malaria Control Program in Senegal (Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme, PNLP, PNLP) and malaria simulation data with the VECTRI (EIR) model has shown the ability of the biological model to simulate malaria transmission in Senegal. We then used the VECTRI model to reproduce the historical characteristics of malaria in West Africa and quantify the projected changes with two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The method adopted consists of first studying the climate in West Africa for a historical period (1950–2014), then evaluating the performance of VECTRI to simulate malaria over the same period (1950–2014), and finally studying the impact of projected climate change on malaria in a future period (2015–2100) according to the ssp245 ssp585 scenario. The results showed that low-latitude (southern) regions with abundant rainfall are the areas most affected by malaria transmission. Two transmission peaks are observed in June and October, with a period of high transmission extending from May to November. In contrast to regions with high latitudes in the north, semi-arid zones experience a relatively brief transmission period that occurs between August, September, and October, with the peak observed in September. Regarding projections based on the ssp585 scenario, the results indicate that, in general, malaria prevalence will gradually decrease in West Africa in the distant future. But the period of high transmission will tend to expand in the future. In addition, the shift of malaria prevalence from already affected areas to more suitable areas due to climate change is observed. Similar results were also observed with the ssp245 scenario regarding the projection of malaria prevalence. In contrast, the ssp245 scenario predicts an increase in malaria prevalence in the distant future, while the ssp585 scenario predicts a decrease. These findings are valuable for decision makers in developing public health initiatives in West Africa to mitigate the impact of this disease in the region in the context of climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 72%

Section: Vectri Model's Performance With Observed Malaria Cases In Se...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All the CMIP6 models used in this study, except for the BCC-CSM2-MR model, demonstrate a consistent peak in September. Generally, the occurrence of malaria cases aligns with a combination of high temperatures and rainfall [18,[74][75][76]. The development of the Plasmodium sporogonic stage varies depending on climatic conditions, lasting between 9 and 20 days (at temperatures ranging from 30 • C to 20 • C) [77].…”

Section: Vectri Model's Performance With Observed Malaria Cases In Se...mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Enhancing Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria in West Africa Using the Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI) and the Bias-Corrected Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP6)

Fall,

Diouf,

Deme

et al. 2023

Microbiology Research

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“…The most affected region is sub-Saharan Africa with 96% of deaths, 80% of which are in children under five (WHO, 2021). Climate plays an important role in the dynamics and distribution of malaria (Gouataine & Ymba, 2018;Fosah et al, 2022). Variations in climatic conditions, such as temperature, rainfall patterns, and humidity have a significant effect on vector life span, parasite development, and subsequently disease transmission (Diomandé et al, 2017;Fosah et al, 2022;Zewga, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate plays an important role in the dynamics and distribution of malaria (Gouataine & Ymba, 2018;Fosah et al, 2022). Variations in climatic conditions, such as temperature, rainfall patterns, and humidity have a significant effect on vector life span, parasite development, and subsequently disease transmission (Diomandé et al, 2017;Fosah et al, 2022;Zewga, 2021). Furthermore, the risk of transmission increases in a poorly maintained environment characterized by the proliferation of illegal dumpsites, the discharge of wastewater in the streets, and the presence of stagnant water after rainfall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping of Malaria Risk Related to Climatic and Environmental Factors by Multicriteria Analysis in the Marahoué Region of Côte d’Ivoire

Gouzilé¹,

Bama²,

Zamina³

et al. 2022

GEP

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Malaria, a febrile human disease transmitted by female anopheles whose ecology is linked to water, is a major public health problem in Côte d'Ivoire, more precisely in the Marahoué region located in the southwest of the country. In order to effectively control this disease, it is necessary to understand the etiology and the diffusion pattern of the vectors. This justifies this study, which proposes to determine the areas at risk of malaria transmission in order to carry out an effective fight against this disease in this region of Côte d'Ivoire. To achieve this, a combined approach of geographic information systems and multicriteria analysis was adopted. The analysis reveals that the south and northwest of the Marahoué region present a high risk for malaria transmission. This risk is linked to indicators such as climatic factors that cover 48.36% of the study area, environmental factors such as vegetation cover (NDVI), soil moisture (NDWI), altitude, hydrography (water point) and population that covers 55.29% of the area and land use. Also, the results indicated that 50.70% of the region has favorable conditions for malaria transmission. Overall, climatic and environmental indicators are the risk factors associated with the resurgence of malaria.

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The Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Incidence in Bonaberi and Tombel Districts, Cameroon

fosah,

Mbouna,

Achu

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Purpose Global warming and its impact on malaria incidence is a call for concern. Malaria a vector-borne disease is sensitive to weather and climate condition. Because of the increased concentration of human activities on wetlands, the lives of those living there are vulnerable to climate-related diseases including malaria.Methods This study examines malaria incidence and the impact of climate change on the population living in Bonaberi and Tombel. Parasite ratio Observed is obtained from the national malaria program as well as Precipitation data obtained from Famine Early Warning Systems Network. Temperature data is obtained from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Simulations are done using the VECTRI model. To study the observed parasite ratio(PR) and PR simulated in Tombel and Bonaberi and make projections of PR for the two areas using CORDEX projections data under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5).Results Results show that both Tombel and Bonaberi had peaks of parasite ratio PR (0.8) for Tombel and a slight increase in Bonaberi to up to PR (0.9). Also, future projections reveal a fluctuating increase in the PR for the Bonaberi having a PR of (0.95) and Tombel having a peak PR of (0.9).Conclusion The results from this work are expected to guide community-based early-warning systems and adaptation strategies, future planning and implementation strategies in Bonaberi and Tombel, which will assist the national malaria program, in adapting to climate change.

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Influences of Rainfall and Temperature on Malaria Endemicity in Cameroon: Emphasis on Bonaberi District

Cited by 4 publications

References 50 publications

Enhancing Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria in West Africa Using the Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI) and the Bias-Corrected Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP6)

Enhancing Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria in West Africa Using the Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI) and the Bias-Corrected Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP6)

Mapping of Malaria Risk Related to Climatic and Environmental Factors by Multicriteria Analysis in the Marahoué Region of Côte d’Ivoire

The Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Incidence in Bonaberi and Tombel Districts, Cameroon

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Influences of Rainfall and Temperature on Malaria Endemicity in Cameroon: Emphasis on Bonaberi District

Cited by 4 publications

References 50 publications

Enhancing Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria in West Africa Using the Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI) and the Bias-Corrected Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP6)

Enhancing Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria in West Africa Using the Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI) and the Bias-Corrected Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP6)

Mapping of Malaria Risk Related to Climatic and Environmental Factors by Multicriteria Analysis in the Marahou&#233; Region of C&#244;te d’Ivoire

The Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Incidence in Bonaberi and Tombel Districts, Cameroon

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Mapping of Malaria Risk Related to Climatic and Environmental Factors by Multicriteria Analysis in the Marahoué Region of Côte d’Ivoire