Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting

Abstract

An efficient market incorporates news into prices immediately and fully. Tests for efficiency in financial markets have been undermined by information leakage. We test for efficiency in sports betting markets – real‐world markets where news breaks remarkably cleanly. Applying a novel identification to high‐frequency data, we investigate the reaction of prices to goals scored on the ‘cusp’ of half‐time. This strategy allows us to separate the market's response to major news (a goal), from its reaction to the continual flow of minor game‐time news. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.

Prediction Markets – A New Tool for Managing Supply Chains

“…The PMs were very liquid; the average trading volume was nearly 5.8 mil US$ per game. 44 percent of the volume was executed during the game (Croxson and Reade, 2008). The prices of the PMs during the World Cup 2002 show the same information revelation (Gil and Levitt, 2007).…”

“…More than twice as many orders were executed at PM2 than at PM1 (Seemann et al, 2008). The PMs for the English Premiership are semi strong efficient for new goals, which are the most important information next to the game time (Croxson and Reade, 2008). A trader cannot gain a positive return with public information.…”

A weighted plus/minus metric for individual soccer player performance

“…There has been quite extensive research on the effectiveness of league football betting markets in the sense that betting odds reflect the available information (e.g. Croxson & Reade, 2014;Deschamps & Gergaud, 2007;Dobson & Goddard, 2011;Forrest et al, 2005;Goddard, 2005;Goddard & Asimakopoulos, 2004;Spann & Skiera, 2009) and consequently on the quality of the information when using betting quotas as a proxy for team strength. While there is evidence that bookmakers possibly try to exploit behavioral biases of bettors, e.g.…”

“…While there is evidence that bookmakers possibly try to exploit behavioral biases of bettors, e.g. a "sentiment bias" leading to worse quotas for popular teams (Braun & Kvasnicka, 2013;, the overall picture tends to support high degrees of efficiency in the market (Croxson & Reade, 2014;Simmons, 2013;Spann & Skiera, 2009). Betting odds for weekend games are collected Friday afternoons, and on Tuesday afternoons for midweek games.…”

Forecasting With Social Media: Evidence From Tweets on Soccer Matches

“…Prediction markets have even performed well when illiquid, as was the case in the corporate prediction markets studied by Cowgill and Zitzewitz (), and have also performed well when attempts have been made to manipulate prices, as was the case in the presidential betting markets studied by Rhode and Strumpf () and Rothschild and Sethi (2016). In addition, and of particular relevance to our setting, prediction/betting markets have been found to accurately digest information on events (goals) almost immediately (Croxson and Reade ).…”