Innovative Classification of Technology Foresight Methods / Nauja Technologijų Prognozavimo Metodų Klasifikacija

Abstract

Since the end of the twentieth century there is a noticeable worldwide paradigm shift in future studies which are so far based mainly on statistical methods. The development of a social, not only a strictly scientific vision of the future has become crucial. It appears that the biggest role in this context played technology foresight programs (whose origins go back even to the 70's), integrating traditional methods of forecasting as well as those derived from the social sciences, economics, management science, etc. The paper presents a rich collection of foresight methods identified by the author, a general outline and characteristics of various types of methods, and an innovative classification of technology foresight research methods. Because of the huge complexity of the approach to technological foresight and its further evolution, the ability to classify and identify the typology of methods may be necessary for an orderly and rational way of structuring foresight projects. Santrauka Nuo XX a. pabaigos visame pasaulyje ateities studijos daugiausia rėmėsi statistiniais metodais. Svarbi tapo socialinės raidos ne tik griežtai mokslinė ateities vizija. Didelis vaidmuo čia atiteko technologijų prognozavimo metodams (jų ištakos siekia aštuntąjį dešimtmetį), integruojantiems tradicinius prognozavimo metodus ir metodus, pasiskolintus iš socialinių, ekonomikos, vadybos ir kitų mokslų. Autorius pateikia ilgą prognozavimo metodų sąrašą, bendrus jų bruožus ir charakteristikas, taip pat siūlo novatorišką technologijų prognozavimo metodų klasifikaciją. Prognozavimo metodai tampa vis sudėtingesni, jie evoliucionuoja, todėl metodų klasifikacija ir tipologija gali praversti struktūrizuojant prognozes.

Corporate foresight at the strategic research institutes

“…IC measure ment methods are commonly used in the context of corpo rate business management (Sveiby 1997;Sullivan 2000) and increasingly by universities (Leitner 2002;FH Joanneum IC Report 2010. Whereas, the method does not appear in the comprehensive list of foresight techniques presented by Popper (2008) and Magruk (2011). Additionally, the authors of the paper have found only one example of the use of IC methods by a strategic research institute in order to prepare its IC Report: the Austrian Institute of Technology (Leitner, Warden 2004), but this activity was not connected to fore sight.…”

Innovative Classification of Methods of the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis

“…Magruk (2011). He identified 117 methods with the potential of use for foresight research and grouped them into 10 classes.…”

“…Analysis of the methods within the class (Georghiou et al 2008;Magruk 2011;Saritas et al 2014) source data analysis (Georghiou et al 2008;Magruk 2011;Saritas et al 2014) analysis of longterm (Cagnin et al 2008;Georghiou et al 2008;Magruk 2011;Saritas et al 2014) analysis of the action (Cagnin et al 2008) institutional analysis (Cagnin et al 2008;Georghiou et al 2008;Magruk 2011;Saritas et al 2014) stakeholder analysis (Cagnin et al 2008;Georghiou et al 2008;Magruk 2011;Saritas et al 2014) correspondence analysis (Georghiou et al 2008;Magruk 2011;Saritas et al 2014) life cycle costing (Gieraszewska,…”

Technology Mapping – Proposal of a Method of Technology Analysis in Foresight Studies

“…He makes three basic suggestions about technology management which can be applied to foresight research. The first one indicates that qualitative and quantitative methods of technology management methodology should be integrated, which is analogous to research methodology of foresight that accommodates a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods as well as intermediate ones (Popper 2008;Magruk 2011a). The second suggestion is that the interdisciplinary char acter of technology management should be noted, so the research scope in technology management methods should be widened.…”