Integrating ecoclimatic niche modelling methods into classical biological control programmes

Kriticos, Darren J.; Ireland, K. B.; Morin, L.; Kumaran, N.; Ota, Noboru; Raghu, S.

doi:10.1016/j.biocontrol.2021.104667

Cited by 16 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…It represents the minimum threshold of habitat necessary for the survival of every organism in the ecosystem. Niche modeling refers to a mathematical model that uses the niche theory and method to determine the level of ecological compensation effect by calculating the niche suitability of assessment indicators [29]. If there are n ecological factors in a region, the quantized values of these ecological factors are expressed by X i means, the ecological factors matrix can be expressed as: X = {X 1 , X 2 ,..., X n }, then the ecological factors of m regions can form (n × m) dimensional quantized values matrix of ecological factors, the matrix is represented by eFm, and the specific expression is as follows:…”

Section: Construction Of Spatial Niche Suitability Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Comprehensive Assessment of Air Quality of Energy Consumption in Industrial Parks: Take Nanjing HX Industrial Park in China as an Example

Xu¹,

Zhang²

2022

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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In order to explore the comprehensive assessment method of air quality of pollutant emission of energy consumption in China's urban internal industrial parks, based on the full consideration of the actual situation of air pollution control in Nanjing HX Industry Park, this paper selects 15 air quality assessment indicators. According to the national air quality standard, the air quality standard of Nanjing and the air quality standard of Nanjing HX Industry Park, the air quality assessment standard is determined about pollutant emission of energy consumption in Nanjing HX Industry Park. Through the technical treatment of the selected assessment indicators, the niche suitability model is introduced, and based on this, the spatial niche suitability model is reconstructed to comprehensively assess the air quality of pollutant emission of energy consumption in Nanjing HX Industry Park. The study found that the air quality of Nanjing HX Industry Park has been improved from level III in 2012 to level I in 2020. According to the assessment results, the differences of assessment results of different niche suitability models are discussed, which fully reflects the advantages of spatial niche assessment methods. The change law and influencing factors of the assessment results are further discussed.

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Section: Construction Of Spatial Niche Suitability Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Comprehensive Assessment of Air Quality of Energy Consumption in Industrial Parks: Take Nanjing HX Industrial Park in China as an Example

Xu¹,

Zhang²

2022

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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“…This highlights the importance of understanding and estimating the potential geographical range of this pest, which will inform risk assessments and contribute to biosecurity preparedness activities for TPP. The use of ecological niche/ bioclimatic models has become increasingly common in predicting suitable habitats for pests, with several modelling software, such as BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, GRAP, HABITAT, MaxEnt and CLIMEX, being available for this purpose (Avila & Charles 2018;Kriticos et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and future potential geographical distribution of Bactericera cockerelli: an invasive pest of increasing global importance

2023

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Due to ongoing climate change and the spread of invasive pests, understanding and predicting climatic suitability for invasive insect species has shown growing demand from government and industry biosecurity managers. The invasive pest Bactericera cockerelli, (Šulc) (Hemiptera: Triozidae), commonly known as tomato potato psyllid (TPP), is native to North America and has recently invaded Australasia. TPP is also the vector of the bacterial plant pathogen Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (CLso), which has caused severe economic losses for potato growers worldwide. We used the niche modelling software CLIMEX to predict the potential geographical distribution of TPP in Australasia and worldwide under current and future climatic scenarios. Our model prediction of the current climate conditions closely agrees with all the known distributions of TPP. In its native range (North America), TPP is predicted to expand its current geographical range in semi‐arid, temperate, and continental climates. Within Australia, along with the known occurrence of TPP in Western Australia, potential expansion into South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland is predicted. The predicted distribution closely matches all the known records with higher climatic suitability in New Zealand. Globally, the model projected that the pest‐free countries in Europe and East Asia are climatically more suitable for TPP. Predictions under the future climate change scenarios (A1B, CSIRO Mk 3.0 for 2090) showed a significant reduction of the known geographical range of TPP with a possible expansion towards higher latitudes. Areas in North America and Australia are projected to be less climatically suitable for the survival of TPP in future climates. However, our model suggested that Europe and New Zealand will remain unchanged or will become more favourable in the future. These CLIMEX projections for current and future climatic distribution provide valuable information for existing and future biosecurity preparedness and management programmes, which may prove helpful in risk assessments and identifying potential areas that are likely to be susceptible to a TPP invasion.

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“…In particular, predicting the distribution and abundance of weeds in different environments has become a central tool for improving their management strategies (Peltzer et al, 2008; Steiner et al, 2008). Therefore the role of predictive modelling of species occurrence (or ecological niche models) has gained interest in particular because these can be integrated into biological control programs to improve efficiency, reduce risks, and predict when and where to search for control agents (Harms et al, 2021; Kriticos et al, 2021). Distribution models allow estimation of the relative suitability of habitat known to be occupied by the species, as well as estimation of habitat suitability in other geographic areas and/or in other temporal scenarios (Peterson et al, 2011; Warren & Seifert, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What distribution models of alligator weed in its native and invaded ranges tell us about its invasion story and biological control

Sánchez‐Restrepo

Reche

Cabrera

et al. 2023

Entomologia Exp Applicata

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Ecological niche models of species occurrence have gained interest in biological control programs to improve efficiency, reduce risks, and to inform when and how control agents may be released and/or surveyed. Alligator weed, Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb. (Amaranthaceae), is an amphibious aquatic plant native to southern South America that has invaded several countries around the world. In this study, our aim was to quantify the current and to model the future alligator weed geographical distributions in its native range in South America, and in its introduced range (USA, the country where biological control of the weed was first implemented). Additionally, we modelled the current and potential distribution of its biocontrol agent Agasicles hygrophila Selman & Vogt (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), released in the USA in 1964, and other potential biocontrol agents, including the flea beetles Disonycha argentinensis Jacoby and Systena sp. In total, 19438 occurrence records of alligator weed, 253 of A. hygrophila, 48 of D. argentinesis, and 19 of Systena sp. were compiled. Niche models predicted expanded distributions of alligator weed, particularly in northern regions of South America. However, the models of the flea beetles A. hygrophila, D. argentinensis, and Systena sp. did not predict geographic range expansion and the future scenarios are similar to current distributions. Our study predicts an increase in the suitable areas for alligator weed in South America in future scenarios of global warming, whereas these new areas would not be as favourable for the biocontrol agents historically used.

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Integrating ecoclimatic niche modelling methods into classical biological control programmes

Cited by 16 publications

References 41 publications

Study on Comprehensive Assessment of Air Quality of Energy Consumption in Industrial Parks: Take Nanjing HX Industrial Park in China as an Example

Study on Comprehensive Assessment of Air Quality of Energy Consumption in Industrial Parks: Take Nanjing HX Industrial Park in China as an Example

Current and future potential geographical distribution of Bactericera cockerelli: an invasive pest of increasing global importance

What distribution models of alligator weed in its native and invaded ranges tell us about its invasion story and biological control

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