Integrating strategic planning intentions into land-change simulations: Designing and assessing scenarios for Bucharest

Bacău, Simona; Domingo, Darío; Palka, Gaëtan; Pellissier, Loïc; Kienast, Félix

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2021.103446

Cited by 16 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Cellular automaton, as other land-use change simulation models, has limitations on coping with planning or policy effects. Recently, a number of studies have tried to consider the planning or policy in urban simulation models, such as seeing planning or policy as driving factors [60] or changing land demand of specific areas [67]. More research is needed to explore the planning strategies' effects on future urban growth.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Growth Simulation Based on a Multi-Dimension Classification of Growth Types: Implications for China’s Territory Spatial Planning

Miao

Xiao

Tang³

2022

Land

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One of the primary aims of China’s territory spatial planning is to control the urban sprawl of local municipals and prevent regional competition and the negative consequences on the environment—which emphasizes the top-down spatial regulation. Indeed, the traditional cellular automaton (CA) model still has limitations when applied to the whole administration area since it may ignore the differences among cities and towns. Thus, this paper proposed a CM-CA (clustering, multi-level logit regression, integrated with cellular automaton) framework to simulate urban growth boundaries for cities and towns simultaneously. The significant novelty of this framework is to integrate several urban growth modes for all cities and towns. We applied our approach to the city of Xi’an, China, and the results showed satisfactory simulation accuracy of a CM-CA model for multiple cities and towns, and the clusters’ effects contributed 74% of the land change variance. Our study provides technical support for urban growth boundary delineation in China’s spatial planning.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Growth Simulation Based on a Multi-Dimension Classification of Growth Types: Implications for China’s Territory Spatial Planning

Miao

Xiao

Tang³

2022

Land

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“…Land, as an indispensable natural asset underpinning human societal and economic endeavors, assumes a paramount role in fostering social and economic sustainability and realizing the imperatives outlined in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Particularly pertinent in the pursuit of SDG 11 (advancing inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban settlements) and SDG 15 (promoting the sustainable use and conservation of terrestrial ecosystems), judicious land employment emerges as an essential precondition [1,2]. However, amidst the global tide of urbanization, challenges have surfaced, including the unchecked pace of urban land expansion, rampant spatial sprawl, and discordant spatial arrangements [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolving Urban Expansion Patterns and Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis from a Composite Perspective of “Social–Economic–Ecological”: A Case Study of the Hilly and Gully Regions of Northern Loess Plateau in Shaanxi Province

Zhang,

Liu,

Sheng

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Over recent decades, the hilly and gully regions of the northern Loess Plateau in Shaanxi province have grappled with severe soil erosion and a precarious ecological milieu. Shaped by urbanization policies, this locale has encountered a gamut of issues, including an imbalance in human–environment dynamics and the degradation of ecological integrity. Consequently, the comprehension of how urban expansion impacts the optimization of regional landscape configurations, the alignment of human–environment interactions in the Loess Plateau’s hilly and gully domains, and the mitigation of urban ecological challenges assumes paramount importance. Leveraging data from land use remote sensing monitoring, alongside inputs from natural geography and socio-economic spheres, and employing methodologies such as landscape pattern indices, we conduct an exhaustive analysis of Zichang City’s urban fabric from 1980 to 2020. Furthermore, employing the CLUE-S model, we undertake multifaceted scenario simulations to forecast urban expansion in Zichang City through to 2035. Our findings delineate two distinct phases in Zichang City’s urban expansion trajectory over the past four decades. From 1980 to 2000, urban construction land in Zichang City experienced a phase of methodical and steady growth, augmenting by 64.98 hectares, alongside a marginal decrease in the landscape shape index (LSI) by 0.02 and a commensurate increase in the aggregation index (AI) by 1.17. Conversely, from 2000 to 2020, urban construction land in Zichang City witnessed an epoch of rapid and haphazard expansion, doubling in expanse, marked by a notable escalation in LSI (2.45) and a corresponding descent in the AI (2.85). The precision of CLUE-S model simulations for Zichang City’s land use alterations registers at 0.88, fulfilling the exigent demand for further urban expansion and land use change prognostication. Under the aegis of the natural development scenario, the augmentation of urban construction land in Zichang City primarily encroaches upon grassland, farmland, and woodland, effectuating an increase of 159.81 hectares. Conversely, under the ambit of urbanization development, urban construction land contends predominantly with farmland, grassland, and woodland, heralding an augmentation of 520.42 hectares. Lastly, under the mantle of ecological protection, urban construction land expansion predominantly encroaches upon grassland, farmland, and woodland, resulting in an augmentation of 4.27 hectares. Through a nuanced analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of urban expansion and scenario-based simulations, this study endeavors to furnish multi-faceted, scenario-driven, and policy-centric insights for regional planning, urban spatial delineation, and regional ecological safeguarding.

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“…Multiple models of land change evolution and prediction have been produced [26][27][28]. The future land use simulation model, FLUS, was created with consideration of the comprehensive impact of climatic variations and human activities on land utilization changes [29,30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variations of Production–Living–Ecological Space under Various, Changing Climate and Land Use Scenarios in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River Basin, China

Wang,

Li,

Zhang

et al. 2023

Land

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Land is an important resource that supports the production, life, and ecological development of human society. The current research on production–living–ecological space (PLES) is mainly focusing on the identification of single and dominant functions of land space, and the comprehensive spatial function measurement index of PLES (PLESI) is less known in the effective quantitative evaluation of multifunctionality of different land use categories. Integrating the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) scenario data and the future land use simulation model (FLUS), this research took the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River (URHR) as an example to explore the temporal and spatial variations in land use, PLES, and PLESIs during 2000–2020, and in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2021 to 2100. The findings were as follows: (1) Forest land is the most widely distributed type of land; correspondingly, ecological space has the widest distribution area in PLES, followed by production space. (2) The area of dry land and building land increased between 2000 and 2010, accompanied by the increase in living space. From 2010 to 2020, the growth rate of building land tended to slow down while forest land increased, and the conflict of PLES eased. (3) The transfer between forest land and dry land is projected to intensify under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, while it is projected to occur between forest land and grassland under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. As for the changes in PLES, the SSP2-4.5 scenario has a greater impact than the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Spatially, several sub-basins in the northern URHR are the main areas of land use and PLES change. (4) PLESI presents a significant downward trend from 2000 to 2020 while trending upward under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and trending downward slightly under the SSP2-4.5 scenario between 2020 and 2100. Combining climate scenarios and the future land use simulation, this research would support the effective utilization of regional land resources and ecosystem management decision-making.

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Integrating strategic planning intentions into land-change simulations: Designing and assessing scenarios for Bucharest

Cited by 16 publications

References 60 publications

Urban Growth Simulation Based on a Multi-Dimension Classification of Growth Types: Implications for China’s Territory Spatial Planning

Urban Growth Simulation Based on a Multi-Dimension Classification of Growth Types: Implications for China’s Territory Spatial Planning

Evolving Urban Expansion Patterns and Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis from a Composite Perspective of “Social–Economic–Ecological”: A Case Study of the Hilly and Gully Regions of Northern Loess Plateau in Shaanxi Province

Spatiotemporal Variations of Production–Living–Ecological Space under Various, Changing Climate and Land Use Scenarios in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River Basin, China

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