Integrating Technology Obsolescence Considerations Into Product Design Planning

Abstract

Technology life cycles affect a product manager’s ability to sustain systems through their manufacturing and field lives. The lack of availability of critical parts and technologies poses a challenge not only to the acquisition community, but to customers of products that must be maintained for long periods of time. Technology obsolescence has an especially serious impact on systems that have significant electronics content because electronic parts are quickly obsoleted in favor of newer, higher performance components. In this study, market availability data was analyzed for operational amplifiers, a technology integral to most electronic products, and for flash memory devices. Procurement lifetimes are shown to have shrunk since operational amplifiers emerged on the market. Algorithms for forecasting electronic part obsolescence are proposed and the ramifications of electronic part obsolescence on product design planning are discussed.

Integrated vs. add-on: A multidimensional conceptualisation of technology obsolescence

“…Electronic products such as monitors, printers, mobile phones and laptops tend to have relatively short lifespans compared to military aircraft, avionics systems and power grids which require decades of support services and high levels of investment and follow-on development (Feldman and Sandborn, 2007). Accordingly, life cycle mismatch (Solomon et al, 2000) occurs when the parts can become obsolete before the product's life cycle comes to an end and vice versa (Bradley and Guerrero, 2009).…”

Minimizing the Risks of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages: Evaluating Electronic Avionics Lifecycle Sustainment Strategies

“…As electronic components, particularly aircraft avionics, grow older they often break in unanticipated ways requiring more frequent repairs at costs of 1.5 to 5 times the original procurement cost (Rhea, 1998;Marion, 2001;Luke et al, 1999;Pope et al, 1998;Feldman and Sandborn, 2007). McDermott et al, (1999) analyzed the financial costs required to respond and solve obsolescence issues.…”

“…Many authors of obsolescence research agree that electronic subcomponents have shorter lifecycles that the products which they support, increasing obsolescence rates throughout the electronics industry (Pecht and Das, 2000;Feldman and Sandborn, 2007;Condra, 1999;Feng et al, 2007;Meyer et al, 2004;Craig, 2002;Mont, 2004). Optimizing a lifecycle is often determined by the primary user of the item based on total lifecycle costs, total lifecycle benefits, or other user specific requirements that may determine the usefulness of the product.…”

“…Diminishing Material Supplies and Material Shortages is the loss or impending loss of manufacturing suppliers of a product, and/or its components or parts, to include shortages of raw materials to produce items required to support a DoD weapon system (Overstreet, 2002;Meyer et al, 2004;Singh et al, 2002;Pecht and Das, 2000;Sandborn, 2007;Solomon et al, 2000;Feldman and Sandborn, 2007). While the majority of DMSMS cases involve electronic parts, primarily integrated micro circuits, and conductors, DMSMS can and does impact all Federal Stock Classes (FSC) of equipment.…”

“…This model heavily relies on continuously accurate data, with forecast data becoming more accurate as obsolescence approaches. Several authors have offered modified forecasting models, each with its own limitations and parameters (Henke and Lai, 1997;Feldman and Sandborn, 2007;Sandborn et al, 2005;Sjoberg and Harkness, 1996;Blackman and Rogowski, 2008). …”