Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030

Chen, Kaihua; Ren, Zhipeng; Mu, Shijun; Sun, Tara Qian; Rongping, Mu

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120157

Cited by 52 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…First, the Delphi method can draw on the knowledge of many to increase the accuracy and relevance of the answer. In other words, experts from various fields and organizations, such as universities, government sectors and companies, can generate a collective and accurate judgement that contributes to the construction of indicator system [51]. Second, the Delphi method can enhance the validity of scenario based on the advantage of anonymous and heterogeneity of experts [52].…”

Section: Research Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This makes the indicator contents more applicable and scientific [53]. Taking the aforementioned advantages into account, the method is widely used for the establishment of an assessment framework and the development of evaluation indicators [51,[54][55][56][57]. There is evidence that application of the Delphi method can enhance the accuracy and scientific level of research [57].…”

Section: Research Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To promote the systematisms of indicator structure, the Delphi method was employed to select and establish indicator system based on the original evaluation indicators. It is widely acknowledged that adopting a heterogeneous panel of experts can collect more information from various fields and organizations than a homogenous panel [51]. An "expert" panel was established that was composed of 15 scholars from pro-poor tourism (10 scholars from universities and 5 scholars form tourism research institutes) and 5 government officials in the poverty alleviation department.…”

Section: Screening the Evaluation Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Poor Residents’ Perceptions of the Impacts of Tourism on Poverty Alleviation: From the Perspective of Multidimensional Poverty

et al. 2020

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Tourism plays a crucial role in alleviating poverty deprivations and achieving sustainable development. Nevertheless, there is a lack of literature regarding evaluating poor residents’ perceptions of the impacts of tourism on poverty alleviation from the perspective of multidimensional poverty. Taking Fenghuang County, China, as the study area, this study established an evaluation framework by using the Delphi method based on multidimensional poverty theory. Moreover, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was employed to identify the weight of each indicator and assess poor residents’ perceptions of the impacts of tourism on poverty alleviation. The results indicate that tourism economic development has been a momentous contributor to alleviating multidimensional poverty in study locations to a certain extent (3.180). However, there is still room for improvement and promotion. With respect to various dimensions, the mean of economic level is the highest (1.125), whilst the means of education training (0.420) and health care (0.819) are relatively lower than the other dimensions.

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Section: Research Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Research Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Screening the Evaluation Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Poor Residents’ Perceptions of the Impacts of Tourism on Poverty Alleviation: From the Perspective of Multidimensional Poverty

et al. 2020

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“…In the first round, the questionnaires are sent to the experts and their responses are gathered. In the second round, the statistical results of the first round survey are given to the experts to give them the chance of rethinking and therefore making it potentially easier to reach a consensus (Chen et al, 2020 ; Esfandabadi et al, 2020 ) on the SDGs targets selection. The six steps of the modified Delphi survey conducted in this research are as follows: Step 1 .…”

Section: Research Design and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Recovery agenda for sustainable development post COVID-19 at the country level: developing a fuzzy action priority surface

Ranjbari

Esfandabadi

Scagnelli

et al. 2021

Environ Dev Sustain

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As a response to the urgent call for recovery actions against the COVID-19 crisis, this research aims to identify action priority areas post COVID-19 toward achieving the targets of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) within the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development launched by the United Nations (UN). This paper applies a mixed-method approach to map the post-COVID-19 SDGs targets on a fuzzy action priority surface at the country level in Iran, as a developing country, by taking the following four main steps: (1) using a modified Delphi method to make a list of the SDGs targets influenced by COVID-19; (2) using the best–worst method, as a multi-criteria decision-making tool, to weight the COVID-19 effects on the SDGs targets achievement; also (3) to weight the impact of the SDGs targets on the sustainable development implementation; and finally (4) designing a fuzzy inference system to calculate the action priority scores of the SDGs targets. As a result, reduction of poor people proportion by half (SDG 1.2), development-oriented policies for supporting creativity and job creation (SDG 8.3), end the pandemics and other epidemics (SDG 3.3), reduction of deaths and economic loss caused by disasters (SDG 11.5), and financial support for small-scale enterprises (SDG 9.3) were identified as the highest priorities for action, respectively, in the recovery agenda for sustainable development post COVID-19. The provided fuzzy action priority surface supports the UN’s SDGs achievement and implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in Iran. It also serves as a guideline to help the government, stakeholders, and policy-makers better analyze the long-term effects of the pandemic on the SDGs and their associated targets and mitigate its adverse economic, social, and environmental consequences. Graphical abstract

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“…In this sense, drawing attention to the fact that the proposed methods include a weighting process adjusted to this concept,(21,96) state: "the weighting of the indicators becomes a very important issue because not all indicators have to be equally important to explain the underlying sustainability phenomenon." Therefore, higher weights are assigned to indicators that are more important than others, even though the weights can have a significant effect on the overall composite index.Considering this recommendation and applying the Delphi method, proposed by (97) andwidely used in scientific research(98), three rounds of consultation were carried out with 30 qualified experts. The experts held more than 15 years of work and academic experience in the areas of soils, crop protection, plant physiology, plant breeding, animal production, agricultural economics, rural sociology, zootechnics, edaphology, agrology and agricultural business administration.…”

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confidence: 99%

Agroecosystemic Resilience Index (AgRI): a method to assess agrobiodiversity

Leguizamo

Youkhana²,

Toro³

2020

Preprint

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Agricultural production systems, subjects of study in agroecology, are non-equilibrium open systems permanently influenced by the action of natural or anthropogenic disturbances or “ripple effects.” Faced with this situation, agroecosystems tend to maintain a state of functional equilibrium in time and space, through an emergent property known as resilience. This concept is related to the dissipative capacity of agroecosystems to interact with the disturbance in such a way as to allow it to preserve its functionality and basic structure, through attenuation of the effect that disturbs the system. The literature reports diverse methods with a variable number of indicators or criteria for the evaluation or analysis of resilience. Many of these present conceptual deficiencies considering that the components of the system have similar characteristics and linear responses, that is, they do not show changes due to the action or nature of the disturbance. In this sense, there is a need to propose a generic method to analyze and evaluate agroecosystemic resilience, through a complex and comprehensive approach that takes into consideration the interaction of physical, biotic, socioeconomic or symbolic components of the system. These interactions are differential (weighted), to facilitate decision-making by the community, farmers, or administrators, regarding adaptations, adjustments or modifications that allow the agroecosystem to maintain its productivity and permanence.

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Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030

Cited by 52 publications

References 43 publications

Poor Residents’ Perceptions of the Impacts of Tourism on Poverty Alleviation: From the Perspective of Multidimensional Poverty

Poor Residents’ Perceptions of the Impacts of Tourism on Poverty Alleviation: From the Perspective of Multidimensional Poverty

Recovery agenda for sustainable development post COVID-19 at the country level: developing a fuzzy action priority surface

Agroecosystemic Resilience Index (AgRI): a method to assess agrobiodiversity

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