Intelligence in the Cyber Era: Evolution or Revolution?

Gioe, David V.; Goodman, Michael S.; Stevens, Tim

doi:10.1002/polq.13031

Cited by 12 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…66 Even though some authors argue that digital technology may indeed be revolutionary, assessing it through the prism of intelligence is adequate and evolutionary. 67 While this perspective remains a subject of heated debates, it has unsurprisingly already gained significant traction among intelligence studies scholars. 68 Another popular perspective advocates for a granular approach of focusing on specific manifestations of cyber power.…”

Section: Search Termsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic studies and cyber warfare

Žilinčík

Duyvesteyn

2023

Journal of Strategic Studies

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This article explores the fashion/popularity of the idea that the exercise of cyber power is a form of warfare. Specifically, the article explains the recent decline of the cyber warfare fashion in academia and discusses its implications for strategic studies. To achieve this, we synthesize observations from previous studies with new quantitative and qualitative data. The article contributes to a growing body of literature by tracing and explaining the history of a particular theme within strategic studies.

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Section: Search Termsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic studies and cyber warfare

Žilinčík

Duyvesteyn

2023

Journal of Strategic Studies

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“…But this is changing. Just as espionage and subversion are becoming more prevalent in cyberspace (Gioe et al, 2020), IR scholars are becoming more interested in intelligence and covert action (Carnegie, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Abducted by hackers: Using the case of Bletchley Park to construct a theory of intelligence performance that generalizes to cybersecurity

Lindsay

2024

Journal of Peace Research

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Most cyber intrusions are a form of intelligence rather than warfare, but intelligence remains undertheorized in international relations (IR). This article develops a theory of intelligence performance at the operational level, which is where technology is most likely to affect broader political and military outcomes. It uses the pragmatic method of abduction to bootstrap general theory from the historical case of Bletchley Park in World War II. This critical case of computationally enabled signals intelligence anticipates important later developments in cybersecurity. Bletchley Park was uncommonly successful due to four conditions drawn from contemporary practice of cryptography: radio networks provided connectivity; German targets created vulnerability; Britain invested in bureaucratic organization; and British personnel exercised discretion. The method of abduction is used to ground these particular conditions in IR theory, revisit the evaluation of the case, and consider historical disanalogies. The result is a more generalizable theory that can be applied to modern cybersecurity as well as traditional espionage. The overarching theme is that intelligence performance in any era depends on institutional context more than technological sophistication. The political distinctiveness of intelligence practice, in contrast to war or coercive diplomacy, is deceptive competition between rival institutions in a cooperatively constituted institutional environment. Because cyberspace is highly institutionalized, furthermore, intelligence contests become pervasive in cyberspace.

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Cyber conflict vs. Cyber Command: hidden dangers in the American military solution to a large-scale intelligence problem

Lindsay¹

2020

Intelligence and National Security

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Intelligence in the Cyber Era: Evolution or Revolution?

Cited by 12 publications

References 32 publications

Strategic studies and cyber warfare

Strategic studies and cyber warfare

Abducted by hackers: Using the case of Bletchley Park to construct a theory of intelligence performance that generalizes to cybersecurity

Cyber conflict vs. Cyber Command: hidden dangers in the American military solution to a large-scale intelligence problem

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