Intensified Mega‐ENSO Has Increased the Proportion of Intense Tropical Cyclones Over the Western Northwest Pacific Since the Late 1970s

Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing; Zhao, Jiuwei

doi:10.1002/2017gl075916

Cited by 21 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…() suggested to be related to the increasing proportion of the TCs developing into ITYs. This leads to a number of studies on the proportion of ITYs (Zhan et al ., ; Wu et al ., ) or rapidly intensifying (RI) TCs (Wang and Zhou, ; Wang et al ., ; Zhao et al ., ). As 90% of the ITYs experience at least one RI process (Wang and Zhou, ), the variations of ITYs and RI TCs are highly related to each other.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Interdecadal variation of frequencies of tropical cyclones, intense typhoons and their ratio over the western North Pacific

Liu

Chan

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study explores whether a higher frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence would lead to more intense typhoons (ITYs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1975–2016. The proportion of ITYs shows an upward trend, with a low‐ (1975–2001) and a high‐proportion period (2002–2016). There is an interdecadal variation in TC and ITY frequencies within the period 1975–2001, with three subperiods (1975–1986, 1987–1997 and 1998–2001) identified. Both the annual frequencies of TCs and ITYs are below normal during 1975–1986 and 1998–2001 but above normal during 1987–1997. A comparison between the periods 1975–1986 and 2002–2016 (similar TC frequency but different ITY frequency) shows a significant increase in ITY occurrence to the north and west of the major development region during 2002–2016, which is mainly due to the longer duration of intensification or higher intensification rate so that the TCs can develop into ITYs before making landfall or moving to higher latitudes. Comparing the periods 1987–1997 and 2002–2016 (similar ITY frequency but different TC frequency) shows that the decrease in TC frequency during 2002–2016 is mainly related to a reduction in TC genesis in the southeastern part of the WNP. The west‐northwestward shift in genesis positions during 2002–2016 leads to an increasing frequency of ITYs towards Japan, the Korean Peninsula and the east coast of China. The stronger vertical wind shear and lower moist static energy (MSE) (weaker vertical wind shear and higher MSE) in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the WNP are related to the lower (higher) annual frequencies of both TCs and ITYs during 1975–1986 (1987–1997). The higher tropical cyclone heat potential in the recent decade indicates an expansion of the area favourable for intensification, which is another factor responsible for the higher proportion of ITYs during 2002–2016.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zhan et al . () showed that as a result of the intensified mega‐ENSO, the proportion of ITYs has increased by ~ 16–20% since the late 1970s. Zhao et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal variation of frequencies of tropical cyclones, intense typhoons and their ratio over the western North Pacific

Liu

Chan

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the western North Pacific (WNP), increasing proportion and destructiveness of landfalling typhoon (LFTY) striking southern China has caused great climate concerns on the TC‐climate research (e.g., Knutson et al, ; Li et al, ; Mei & Xie, ; Zhan et al, ). It is found that locally robust sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the WNP strongly contributes to the increased rapid‐intensification of LFTY and the rate of intense TCs (Mei et al, ; Mei & Xie, ; Zhan et al, ; J. Zhao, Zhan, & Wang, ). The WNP SST warming is mainly induced by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)‐, Interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO)‐ and/or Mega‐La Niña‐related climate shift since the late‐1990s (e.g., Hong et al, ; C. Hu, Zhang, et al, ; Zhan et al, ; J. Zhao, Zhan, Wang, & Xu, ; H. Zhao, Duan, et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides, the late‐1990s Pacific regime shift also contributes to the northwestward shift of WNP TC genesis location during autumn (C. Hu, Zhang, et al, ). Zhan et al () suggest that intense TCs formed over the western WNP have stronger coastal risk than those formed over the eastern WNP. However, despite an increase in typhoon intensity with local SST warming, the reduced developing duration (due to the northwestward shift of TC genesis location) and decreased TC frequency (e.g., He et al, ; F. Hu, Li, et al, ; Maue, ; Takahashi et al, ) tend to offset the increasing TC intensity from a typhoon destructive potential perspective (Lin & Chan, ), often with conflicting effects (Knutson et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Perspective on Landfalling Frequency and Genesis Location Variations of Southern China Typhoon During Peak Summer

Zhang

Huang

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Increasing intense landfalling typhoons (LFTYs) are of great coastal threatens to southern China. However, changes in genesis location and landfalling frequency of western North Pacific (WNP) LFTY dedicated to southern China remain unclear. Here we identified such LFTYs during peak summer and found that most LFTYs formed south of 20°N and the LFTY genesis locations over southern WNP have also experienced a sharp interdecadal shift since 1998, which are mainly attributed to the large‐scale environment changes induced by the Mega‐La Niña‐like climate shift. However, LFTY frequency (= “landfalling frequency of southern China typhoon”) shows a slight increasing trend but without significant interdecadal variation. Variations of LFTY frequency are mainly affected by the easterly steering flows near 20°N over the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea, which are closely linked to the WNP subtropical high activity. Our results provide a new perspective on the LFTY activities dedicated to southern China.

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Interdecadal relationship between the wintertime haze frequency over Beijing and mega‐ENSO

Wang

Liu

2020

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Observational analyses suggest that natural or internal climate variability plays a crucial role in modulating wintertime haze days in Beijing (WHD BJ) on decadal timescales, which may overwhelm the effect of human emissions to some extent. This study links the variations in WHD BJ to the mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a newly defined ENSO-related pattern with a vaster range of variability, on decadal timescales. The mega-ENSO delineates an apparent out-of-phase relationship with WHD BJ , which could be used to explain past and recent decreases in WHD BJ in 1961-1971 and 1997-2012, as well as the increase in WHD BJ in 1972-1996. The positive phase of the mega-ENSO can induce a high dynamical scavenging efficiency of pollutants over the Beijing area through notable in situ low-level northerly wind anomalies that are associated with a quasi-barotropic anticyclonic anomaly centered around Lake Baikal, thus reducing the frequency of haze days on decadal timescales, and vice versa for the negative phase. The mega-ENSO can influence interdecadal predictions of the long-term occurrence of haze events over Beijing. Therefore, it will be focused upon in future routine operations.

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Intensified Mega‐ENSO Has Increased the Proportion of Intense Tropical Cyclones Over the Western Northwest Pacific Since the Late 1970s

Cited by 21 publications

References 31 publications

Interdecadal variation of frequencies of tropical cyclones, intense typhoons and their ratio over the western North Pacific

Interdecadal variation of frequencies of tropical cyclones, intense typhoons and their ratio over the western North Pacific

Perspective on Landfalling Frequency and Genesis Location Variations of Southern China Typhoon During Peak Summer

Interdecadal relationship between the wintertime haze frequency over Beijing and mega‐ENSO

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