Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500 hPa height and global sea surface temperature

Hu, Zeng‐Zhen

doi:10.1029/97jd01052

Cited by 242 publications

(178 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…East Asian climate has experienced an interdecadal scale transition near the end of 1970s (Hu, 1997;Wang, 2001;Hu et al, 2003;Han and Wang, 2007). Associated with the inter-decadal climate transition, a strong tropospheric cooling trend is prominent over East Asia during July and August, which contributes to the tendency toward increased droughts in northern China and floods along the Yangtze River valley (often referred to as South China Flood and North China Drought) through changes to the East Asian atmospheric circulation (Yu et al, 2004b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Harmonious inter-decadal changes of July–August upper tropospheric temperature across the North Atlantic, Eurasian continent, and North Pacific

Zhou

Zhang

2009

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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The authors have developed an integral view of the inter-decadal variability of July-August (JA) tropospheric temperature across the entire subtropical Northern Hemisphere. Using reanalysis data and complementary balloon-borne measurements, the authors identify one major mode of variability for the period 1958-2001 which exhibits a significant cooling center over East Asia and warming centers over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The cooling (warming) signals barotropically penetrate through the troposphere, with the strongest anomalies at 200-300 hPa. The amplitude of the cooling over East Asia is stronger than that of the warming over the North Atlantic (North Pacific) by a factor of 2 (3). This dominant mode exhibits a declining tendency for the entire period examined, particularly before 1980. After the mid-1980s, the tendency has leveled off. Variations of the harmonious change of JA upper tropospheric temperature represented by the principal component of Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis exhibit significant negative (positive) correlations with SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific and the western tropical Indian Ocean (mid-latitude North Pacific). Possible mechanisms are discussed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Harmonious inter-decadal changes of July–August upper tropospheric temperature across the North Atlantic, Eurasian continent, and North Pacific

Zhou

Zhang

2009

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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“…Many studies suggest that recent warming in the tropical Pacific and India Ocean leads to an abnormal Subtropical Pacific High that reduces water vapor transport to North China from South China Sea and thus contributes to the observed rainfall changes there (Hu 1997;Chang et al 2000;Gong and Ho 2002;Hu et al 2003;Zhou and Huang 2003;Yang and Lau 2004). In particular, Zeng et al (2007), through analyses of model simulations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community atmospheric model version 3 (CAM3) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SSTs), suggest that the recent warming in the North Indian Ocean and around the South China Sea may have played an important role in the recent EASM weakening.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has weakened since the late 1970s, which is characterized by the weakening of the 850 hPa southwesterly winds, southward shift of the 200 hPa jet stream, and increases in sea level pressure over East Asia (Hu 1997;Wang 2001;Guo et al 2003;Hu et al 2003;Wang and Ding 2006;Xu et al 2006). Furthermore, a cooling trend in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over East Asia has led to the weakening in the northward progression of southerly monsoon winds over this region Yu and Zhou 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000

et al. 2008

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The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and summer rainfall over East China have experienced large decadal changes during the latter half of the 20th century. To investigate the potential causes behind these changes, a series of simulations using the national center for atmospheric research (NCAR) community atmospheric model version 3 (CAM3) and the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model version 2.1 (AM2.1) are analyzed. These simulations are forced separately with different historical forcing, namely tropical sea surface temperature (SSTs), global SSTs, greenhouse gases plus aerosols, and a combination of global SSTs and greenhouse gases plus aerosols. This study focuses on the relative roles of these individual forcings in causing the observed monsoon and rainfall changes over East Asia during 1950-2000. The simulations from both models show that the SST forcing, primarily from the Tropics, is able to induce most of the observed weakening of the EASM circulation, while the greenhouse gas plus (direct) aerosol forcing increases the land-sea thermal contrast and thus enhances the EASM circulation. The results suggest that the recent warming in the Tropics, especially the warming associated with the tropical interdecadal variability centered over the central and eastern Pacific, is a primary cause for the weakening of the EASM since the late 1970s. However, a realistic simulation of the relatively small-scale rainfall change pattern over East China remains a challenge for the global models.

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“…The SST is one of the primary variables affected by the initialization. It is known that the western Pacific Ocean influences the interannual and interdecadal variability of East Asian summer monsoon (Huang and Sun, 1992;Hu, 1997). To quantify the relationship between WP SST and the atmospheric circulation in the hindcast, the regression of the zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa upon the standardized WP SST index are calculated.…”

Section: Sst and Atmospheric Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal prediction skill of BCC‐CSM1.1 climate model in East Asia

Xin

Gao

Wang

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The forecast skill of BCC-CSM1.1 model in summer East Asian climate was evaluated with the decadal prediction experiments launched annually during . Results of the decadal prediction were compared with those of the historical simulation to estimate contribution of the initialization. Improved prediction skill is found for summer surface air temperature (SAT) in central eastern China measured by both root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for the forecast years 2-5. The decadal hindcast of precipitation in central eastern China shows increased skill in RMSE but not ACC. Such improvement in East Asia is related to enhanced prediction skill of the western Pacific (WP) sea surface temperature (SST) originated from the oceanic initialization. In the decadal hindcast, the lower tropospheric atmospheric circulation associated with warm WP exhibits an anticyclone over the South China Sea, which resembles the observation. The southwesterly increases over southeast China associated with warm WP, favouring higher SAT in central eastern China. This reveals that the decadal predictions could more realistically reproduce the relationship between summer East Asian atmospheric circulation and WP SST. The 4-year average forecast within a decade shows that the initialization increases the ACC skill up to forecast years 4-7 for summer SAT in central eastern China.

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Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500 hPa height and global sea surface temperature

Abstract: 19,403

Cited by 242 publications

References 13 publications

Harmonious inter-decadal changes of July–August upper tropospheric temperature across the North Atlantic, Eurasian continent, and North Pacific

Harmonious inter-decadal changes of July–August upper tropospheric temperature across the North Atlantic, Eurasian continent, and North Pacific

Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000

Decadal prediction skill of BCC‐CSM1.1 climate model in East Asia

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