Interdependence and contagion effects in agricultural commodities markets: A bibliometric analysis, implications, and insights for sustainable development

Abstract

Research background: The global interdependence of financial markets due to globalization has resulted in standardized trading conditions for agricultural commodities, reducing the advantages of portfolio diversification. Recent events between 2020 and 2023 underscore the growing importance of real-time information for investors to make informed decisions in this interconnected financial landscape. Purpose of the article: This article aims to conduct a bibliometric review of the literature about market interdependence. We investigate the contagion effect on agricultural commodities and identify commodities and methods used in the most cited publications from 1997 to 2022. Methods: A bibliometric analysis was developed, for this, the SCOPUS database was used, sorting with Rayyan, Excel, and finally, the Bibliometrix/R-project to extract bibliometric information from the database. Findings & value added: The analysis highlights the prominent role of certain countries in contributing to scientific research on this topic, with China and the United States being leaders, collectively producing 24.57% of all publications in the examined periods. The research underscores the global concern for sustainable development, emphasizing the scientific growth linked to this topic and its intersection with energy sources. Unlike other bibliometric studies, this research consolidates relevant methodologies employed in analyzing interdependence and contagion effects in agricultural commodities over the past decades. Additionally, it identifies the most studied commodities in these works. As the world grapples with the challenges of market interdependence, particularly in the wake of recent events between 2020 and 2023, this study underscores the importance of real-time information for informed decision-making. The study suggests a shift towards cleaner and renewable energy sources in the coming years, anticipating increased investments in research and development.

A Study of The Market of Fat Ox and Corn in Bahia/Brazil Via Weighted Networks By Ρ_DCCA

“…Hou and Pan (Hou & Pan, 2022) studied various commodities divided into five categories (metals, light products, energy, meat, and grains), coming to the conclusion that networks become increasingly dense over time and the most intense connections occur between different commodities. Santana et al (Santana, Horta, Chambino, et al, 2023) show the main agricultural commodities analyzed in interdependence and contagion studies and highlight the importance of real-time information for decision-making, as well as recognizing the concern for sustainability and energy transition in agricultural economics studies.…”

“…The evolution of the network of relationships indicates opportunities for small scales, as does the identification of the dynamics of network fluctuation and the time it takes for this volatility to be transmitted (contagion effect). The contagion effect is understood as the transmission of fluctuation between indices, but it is also known in the literature as Overflow, Spillover or Transmission (Carvalho J.C. Hasegawa M.M., 2020;Just M., 2022;Santana, Horta, Chambino, et al, 2023;Santana, Horta, Revez, et al, 2023;Sultonov, 2021;Thenmozhi M., 2020). The volatility of the corn market has been studied extensively in recent years (Santana, Horta, Chambino, et al, 2023), as it is the basis for human food, animal feed, and biofuels.…”

“…From this perspective, it is possible to mention the research by Santana et al (Santana, Horta, Chambino, et al, 2023), who evaluated the interdependence of agricultural commodities;…”