International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

International migration is closely tied to demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors and their interaction with migration policies. Using a combination of a gravity econometric model and an overlapping generations model, we estimate the probability of bilateral migration among 160 countries in the period of 1960 to 2000 and use these findings to project international migration flows and their implications for income inequality within and between countries in the 21st century under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our results show that international migration increases welfare in developing countries, and closes the inequality gap both within and between low-skilled and high-skilled labor in these countries as well. In most developed countries, on the contrary, international migration increases the inequality gap and slightly reduces output. These changes are not uniform, and vary significantly across countries depending on their population growth and human capital development trajectories. Overall, while migration is strongly affected by inequality between developed and developing countries, it has an ambiguous impact on inequality within and between countries.

Motivation factors of internal migration and agriculture in Azerbaijan

“…This factor within the framework of agricultural migration has not been appropriately studied. (Shayegh, Emmerling & Tavoni, 2022).…”

“…The questionnaire questions reflected the specific indicator which could affect the migratory moods of the respondents. The list of indicators was based on (Yüksel et al, 2018;Shayegh, Emmerling & Tavoni, 2022;Kokubun, 2022;Sadiddin et al, 2019) (Table 1)…”

“…In this study, the standard of living we considered was a different factor due to its priority impact on migration, according to most studies (Sadiddin et al, 2019;Yüksel et al, 2018;Kokubun, 2022). (The effect of human capital on migration has been mentioned, but not a lot (Shayegh, Emmerling & Tavoni, 2022)). We assessed factors of infrastructural, ecological, and cultural development of the region, development of education, healthcare, and climatic conditions, accounting for the area in which the respondent lives.…”

“…Such stereotypes as "the inability of women to hold certain positions in agriculture" cause irreparable damage to the productivity of the agro-industrial complex and provoke agricultural migration. Shayegh, Emmerling, and Tavoni (2022) justified the spread of disease as a driver of internal population mobility between rural areas and uncontrolled urbanization. Climate change and environmental degradation risk the spread of numerous diseases for humans, animals, and plants.…”

“…Also, diseases can spread to the crop and livestock sectors of agriculture. This causes irreparable damage to the agro-industrial complex's economy, pushing people to search for better working conditions (Shayegh, Emmerling & Tavoni, 2022).…”