BackgroundTo determine if reduced dose delivery uncertainty is associated with daily image-guidance (IG) and Prostate Specific Antigen Relapse Free Survival (PRFS) in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) of high-risk prostate cancer (PCa).MethodsPlanning data for consecutive PCa patients treated with IMRT (n = 67) and IG-IMRT (n = 35) was retrieved. Using computer simulations of setup errors, we estimated the patient-specific uncertainty in accumulated treatment dose distributions for the prostate and for posterolateral aspects of the gland that are at highest risk for extra-capsular disease. Multivariate Cox regression for PRFS considering Gleason score, T-stage, pre-treatment PSA, number of elevated clinical risk factors (T2c+, GS7+ and PSA10+), nomogram-predicted risk of extra-capsular disease (ECD), and dose metrics was performed.ResultsFor IMRT vs. IG-IMRT, plan dosimetry values were similar, but simulations revealed uncertainty in delivered dose external to the prostate was significantly different, due to positioning uncertainties. A patient-specific interaction term of the risk of ECD and risk of low dose to the ECD (p = 0.005), and the number of elevated clinical risk factors (p = 0.008), correlate with reduced PRFS.ConclusionsImprovements in PSA outcomes for high-risk PCa using IG-IMRT vs. IMRT without IG may be due to improved dosimetry for ECD.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13014-018-0978-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.