Introducing ROLE: A database of rebel leader attributes in armed conflict

Acosta, Benjamin; Huang, Reyko; Silverman, Daniel

doi:10.1177/00223433221077920

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…However, these data can still generate important insights on the causes and consequences of rebel recruitment strategies. Relatedly, RAID is compatible with many other datasets that use the same or similar samples of rebel groups (e.g., Acosta, Huang, and Silverman 2022; Albert 2022; Braithwaite and Cunningham 2020; Fortna, Lotito, and Rubin 2022; Stewart 2018; Wood and Thomas 2017). RAID focuses exclusively on groups in the NSA dataset because of information availability and compatibility with other datasets.…”

Section: The Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recruiting Rebels: Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset

Soules

2023

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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There is an extensive body of literature examining how rebel groups recruit civilians. Much of this scholarly work focuses on the role of material and ideological appeals in mobilizing recruits. However, despite expectations about the importance of recruitment processes, there is currently a lack of data on the persuasive recruitment practices of a large cross-section of groups, making it difficult to test a variety of implications stemming from theories about armed group recruitment. To remedy this, I developed original data—the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset (RAID)—which contains information on 232 militant groups for the period 1989 to 2011. RAID details not only the specific types of recruitment appeals groups make, but the degree to which they rely on ideological appeals, relative to material incentives, for recruitment. To demonstrate the value of the dataset, I employ RAID to test two hypotheses about rebel recruitment and wartime rape derived from existing literature.

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Section: The Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recruiting Rebels: Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset

Soules

2023

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…Before proceeding to the theory, we offer a few caveats. First, our theory is contextual in one key sense: contemporary rebellions are nearly universally led by men, with only one female out of 425 leaders in the sample used in the ROLE database (Acosta, Huang, and Silverman 2022). Our argument about youthful aggression is partly rooted in research on testosterone in young men, and may not apply equally to a context full of female leaders.…”

Section: Age and Rebel Leadershipmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While these case studies are highly suggestive, we now examine our argument more systematically by analyzing data from the Rebel Organization Leaders (ROLE) database. ROLE contains a rich store of biographical information on 425 top leaders (488 cases of leadership overall) of rebel organizations that fought in civil wars between 1980 and 2011 (Acosta, Huang, and Silverman 2022). ROLE’s sample of rebel leaders comes from work by Prorok (2016), who identified the top leaders for almost all rebel organizations in the Uppsala Conflict Data Project’s (UCDP) Non-State Actors in Armed Conflict Dataset (NSA) (Cunningham, Gleditsch, and Salehyan 2013).…”

Section: Quantitative Research Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the case of the nine-year-old Htoo twins from Myanmar, a local pastor reportedly named them joint leaders of the God’s Army organization after “God” spoke to him. As for Pu Kyaung Long, head of Myanmar’s Lahu National United Party (LNUP), he reportedly lived to be 120 and founded the LNUP 7 years before his death (Acosta, Huang, and Silverman 2022). Excluding these outliers, the range is 14–88.

Figure 1.Distribution of Rebel leader age.…”

Section: Quantitative Research Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, illustrative case studies of two well-known rebel leaders – George Washington and Yasser Arafat – demonstrate the plausibility of the theory’s argument and mechanisms, showing how important components of age-related decision-making contributed to the outcomes of the rebellions these men led. Second, we use the Rebel Organization Leaders (ROLE) database, which contains biographical information on rebel leaders active in civil wars from 1980–2011 (Acosta, Huang, and Silverman 2022). We combine these data with organization-, state-, and conflict-level data to systematically investigate the impact of rebel leader age on the probability of different war outcomes.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Rebel Leader Age and the Outcomes of Civil Wars

Silverman

Acosta

Huang

2023

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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What determines the outcomes of civil wars? Existing literature highlights numerous factors at the systemic, state, and organizational levels of analysis. Yet there is little research on the attributes of rebel leaders in shaping war outcomes despite ample theories of their importance in steering their organizations. This article focuses on rebel leaders’ age as one key driver of their behavior. Applying insights from developmental psychology to the context of armed rebellion, we argue that young rebel leaders are the most likely to suffer military defeats, middle-aged leaders to win military victories, and elderly ones to reach negotiated settlements. We use a mixed-methods strategy to substantiate our claims, combining case studies of George Washington and Yasser Arafat with new data from the Rebel Organization Leaders (ROLE) database. Our findings help advance the study of non-state violent leaders in world politics while illuminating neglected sources of risk and opportunity for peace practitioners.

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Peace Versus Profit: Rebel Fragmentation and Conflict Resurgence in Colombia

Wyer

2024

Int Org

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Why do rebel splinter groups emerge during peace processes, and who chooses to defect? Since Colombia's landmark peace agreement with the FARC in 2016, roughly half of the territory once controlled by the group has seen a resurgence of rebel activity by FARC splinter groups. I argue that the FARC's return to arms is a case of “middle-out fragmentation,” whereby opportunities for profit induce mid- or low-ranking rebel commanders to establish splinter groups. In Colombia, I argue that profits from the cocaine trade incentivized local-level FARC officers to defect from the peace agreement and allowed them to rapidly mobilize viable splinter groups. I offer several lines of evidence for this argument. I first construct a chronology of splinter group formation, which demonstrates that mid- and low-level commanders, rather than high-level commanders, were the key drivers of fragmentation. Second, I show that splinter groups emerged in areas where opportunities for profit were greatest. Among areas previously controlled by the FARC, those with coca cultivation prior to the peace agreement were up to thirty-seven percentage points more likely to see splinter groups emerge by 2020 than areas without significant production. Using soil and weather conditions to instrument for coca cultivation produces similar results. Further, I use a novel measure of how critical each municipality is to drug trafficking to show that areas that are theoretically most important for drug trafficking are also more likely to see FARC resurgence. I also address competing explanations related to state capacity, terrain, and popular support for the rebels. These findings highlight an important challenge to peacebuilding: satisfying the political demands of rebel leadership is a necessary but insufficient component of peace agreements in cases where opportunities for profit motivate fragmentation from the middle out.

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Introducing ROLE: A database of rebel leader attributes in armed conflict

Cited by 8 publications

References 40 publications

Recruiting Rebels: Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset

Recruiting Rebels: Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset

Rebel Leader Age and the Outcomes of Civil Wars

Peace Versus Profit: Rebel Fragmentation and Conflict Resurgence in Colombia

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