Is a Palestinian state politically possible?

Sirriyeh, Hussein

doi:10.1080/13537129508719362

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Schrodt and Gerner (2004) report similar findings about triangularity. The role of the United States in this conflict is echoed in other quantitative works such as Organski and Lust-Okar (1997) and qualitative work such as Sirriyeh (1995). Organski and Lust-Okar include the United States as a moderator, while Sirriyeh bases his qualitative forecasts for Israeli-Palestinian relations on U.S. intervention.…”

Section: The Casementioning

confidence: 99%

“…A potential repercussion of this accountability process is that leaders who can generate high audience costs for their policies can more credibly communicate resolve in international conflict situations (Fearon 1994;Martin 2000). Thus, some international relations forecasters argue that scenario generation must anticipate public opinion changes (Sylvan, Keller, and Haftel 2004;Sirriyeh 1995).…”

Section: The Intersection Of Domestic and World Politicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability, and Credibility

Brandt

Colaresi

Freeman

2008

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Do public opinion dynamics play an important role in understanding conflict trajectories between democratic governments and other rival groups? The authors interpret several theories of opinion dynamics as competing clusters of contemporaneous causal links connoting reciprocity, accountability, and credibility. They translate these clusters into four distinct Bayesian structural time series models fit to events data from the Israeli—Palestinian conflict with variables for U.S. intervention and Jewish public opinion about prospects for peace. A credibility model, allowing Jewish public opinion to influence U.S., Palestinian, and Israeli behavior within a given month, fits best. More pacific Israeli opinion leads to more immediate Palestinian hostility toward Israelis. This response's direction suggests a negative feedback mechanism in which low-level conflict is maintained and momentum toward either all-out war or dramatic peace is slowed. In addition, a forecasting model including Jewish public opinion is shown to forecast ex ante better than a model without this variable.

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Section: The Casementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Intersection Of Domestic and World Politicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability, and Credibility

Brandt

Colaresi

Freeman

2008

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…We found only two published projects that attempted to trace scenarios in advance. One was Sirriyeh (1995). The other is the research program represented by Organski & Lust-Okar (1997) and Organski (2000).…”

Section: Comparison With Two Other Published Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Israeli–Palestinian Relations

Sylvan¹,

Keller

Haftel

2004

Journal of Peace Research

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This article addresses the issue of how international relations theories and experts do at forecasting Israeli-Palestinian relations. A group of academics who study the Middle East were brought together to set forth their logic and arguments concerning possible future scenarios of Israeli-Palestinian relations. The article reports on a 'rule-based' computational model built upon the reasoning of these experts. Sensitivity analysis of the model is summarized, and four empirical tests of the model are reported. Relations between Middle East states, externally generated existential threats to Israel, and domestic structural factors such as coalition politics in Israel emerge as driving forces in the sensitivity analysis. Further examination shows that the model is in theoretical harmony with scholars who have employed two-level games and has some similarity to realist explanations and frameworks emphasizing public opinion. Model tests reveal relatively solid results: comparisons with other forecasts generally favor this model, while both the cases of the Labor Party coming to power in Israel and a change in Jordanian behavior after the death of King Hussein lend further support to the model presented here. Finally, when the scholars who served as the expert group to produce these forecasts were asked to reflect back on the process, they exhibited the same rationalizations that have been found in other expertbased forecasts, even though the results of the forecasts were more favorable than many such forecasts.

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The Middle East peace process and regional security

Mor

1997

Journal of Strategic Studies

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Is a Palestinian state politically possible?

Cited by 3 publications

References 6 publications

The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability, and Credibility

The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability, and Credibility

Forecasting Israeli–Palestinian Relations

The Middle East peace process and regional security

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