Is there a future for the gas network in a low carbon energy system?

Hickey, Conor; Deane, Paul; McInerney, Celine; Gallachóir, Brian Ó

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.024

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…While forecasts for China [16,17] or the USA [12][13][14][15] often predict an increase in gas demand over the next few years, many studies for European countries forecast a stagnation or decline. This also depends on the predicted technology development path: British and Irish publications in particular expect carbon capture technologies, hydrogen and bio-methane to be used to decarbonize the energy system while retaining gas grids [5,[19][20][21][22]. Studies from Germany [6,11,[23][24][25][26][27][28][29] or northern European countries [4,5], on the other hand, predict a decline in natural gas demand due to efficiency measures and electrification of the heating systems.…”

Section: Scenarios For Gas Demand From An International and German Pementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several works examine the future of natural gas grids on a macroscopic level, using top-down approaches without taking into account the costs of operating the network infrastructure [21,22,56]. Only [19] analyzes the costs for grid operation of distribution networks for several scenarios with a decreasing demand based on the quantitative structure of all grids in Ireland.…”

Section: Economic Factors Of Operating a Natural Gas Infrastructurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…• "stable revenue cap", an approach in which the DNO tries to keep the absolute revenue cap constant, • "stable grid value", an approach in which the revenue cap is constraint by a stable grid age, and • "stable grid charges", an approach in which the DNO tries to keep grid charges at a constant level. Table 2 shows the cost components of the yearly revenue cap [18,19,64]. Costs that are part of the capital expenditure (CAPEX) have to be determined for every grid asset, so they scale with grid length as well as with asset age.…”

Section: Economic Factors Of Operating a Natural Gas Infrastructurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Natural Gas Distribution Network Structure and Operator Strategies on Grid Economy in Face of Decreasing Demand

Then

Spalthoff

Bauer³

et al. 2020

Energies

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Currently, natural gas provides more than a third of the energy used in European residential buildings. As part of the general decline of fossil fuels, this gas consumption is predicted to drop in several countries by 25–100% by 2050. We model a decline in gas consumption in 57 urban German distribution grids looking for the influence of grid-specific factors and different distribution network operator (DNO) strategies on grid charges. We find a functional relationship between grid length and customer amount described by a power law, with an exponent correlated with structural grid parameters. The disordered structure inherent to grids typically results in a decline in grid costs much slower than the corresponding demand. We introduce a simplified yearly cash flow calculation model based on the power law and validate it against mixed integer linear optimization. A comparison of the total costs of operation and resulting grid charges for several scenarios and strategies estimates the effects on DNO business models. Depending on a combination of DNO’s strategy and customers’ exit pattern, grid charges may increase, accelerating the substitution of gas-bound technologies that might develop into a self-reinforcing feedback loop, leading to grid defection.

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Section: Scenarios For Gas Demand From An International and German Pementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Economic Factors Of Operating a Natural Gas Infrastructurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Economic Factors Of Operating a Natural Gas Infrastructurementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impact of Natural Gas Distribution Network Structure and Operator Strategies on Grid Economy in Face of Decreasing Demand

Then

Spalthoff

Bauer³

et al. 2020

Energies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Most energy system, building retrofit, or grid planning studies neglect the proposed business dynamics: On the one side, investigations concerning the future transformation paths of the building stock, which are usually based on models for the optimization of energy-efficient building design, are in use. The optimization goals are the minimization of the energy consumption, CO 2 emissions, or cost and comfort issues in single buildings or the building stock [24], where they analyze how the technological development is steered by technological and market trends or regulatory and political instruments such as CO 2 pricing, energy efficiency requirements, or technology promotion [5,9,13,25]. Electricity and natural gas grid charges are predetermined exogenous variables, while interactions between individual actors and the circumstances at the local grid level are neglected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdependencies of Infrastructure Investment Decisions in Multi-Energy Systems—A Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Residential Areas

et al. 2021

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Considering the European Union (EU) climate targets, the heating sector should be decarbonized by 80% to 95% up to 2050. Thus, the macro-trends forecast increasing energy efficiency and focus on the use of renewable gas or the electrification of heat generation. This has implications for the business models of urban electricity and in particular natural gas distribution network operators (DNOs): When the energy demand decreases, a disproportionately long grid is operated, which can cause a rise of grid charges and thus the gas price. This creates a situation in which a self-reinforcing feedback loop starts, which increases the risk of gas grid defection. We present a mixed integer linear optimization model to analyze the interdependencies between the electricity and gas DNOs’ and the building owners’ investment decisions during the transformation path. The results of the investigation in a real grid area are used to validate the simulation setup of a sensitivity analysis of 27 types of building collectives and five grid topologies, which provides a systematic insight into the interrelated system. Therefore, it is possible to identify building and grid configurations that increase the risk of a complete gas grid shutdown and those that should be operated as a flexibility option in a future renewable energy system.

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“…Kyoto Protocol assigned the legally binding numerical targets for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for industrialized countries of the world, that are to be achievement during the commitment period 2008 -2012 (Gupta, 2016). The 21 st Conference of Parties, under the UNFCCC summit in Paris (COP21), which took place in December 2015, set a backdrop for large-scale mitigation action through Nationally-Determined Contributions (NDCs), prompting further research into the future of gas in a decarbonized Europe (Hickey et al, 2019). NDCs are national climate plans highlighting climate actions, including climate related targets, policies and measures which governments aims to implement in response to climate change and as a contribution to global climate action.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential of Croatian Liquefied Natural Gas (Lng) Terminal in Supplying Regional Natural Gas Markets

Smajla

Crneković²,

Sedlar

et al. 2020

MGPB

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This paper analyzes the possible role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the region in reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by replacing a certain part of solid fossil fuels. Increasing natural gas consumption, declining North Sea natural gas reserves and increased natural gas production costs in Europe combined have created new opportunities for LNG in Europe. The Energy Strategy of Croatia is focused on intensifying the transit position for natural gas that could establish Croatia as a primary LNG market for countries from the region, which shows that the Energy Strategy supports LNG. Concerning LNG’s introduction into the regional gas market, this paper analyses the possibility of establishing a regional gas hub. The region in this paper includes the following countries: Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Slovenia, and North Macedonia. On the other hand, the observed markets are not organized and sufficiently liquid, which is a crucial precondition for hub establishment. In order to decrease the region’s dependence on pipeline natural gas, it is necessary to construct gas interconnections between Croatia – Serbia, Croatia – Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia – North Macedonia. With the mentioned interconnections, the region could achieve greater security of natural gas supply. This paper discusses the possibility of utilizing the full capacity of a LNG terminal as a source of natural gas supply for the purpose of replacing solid fossil fuels in the region’s primary energy consumption. By replacing solid fossil fuels with natural gas, it is possible to achieve significant savings on CO2 emissions, which contributes towards a green and sustainable future.

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Is there a future for the gas network in a low carbon energy system?

Cited by 17 publications

References 25 publications

Impact of Natural Gas Distribution Network Structure and Operator Strategies on Grid Economy in Face of Decreasing Demand

Impact of Natural Gas Distribution Network Structure and Operator Strategies on Grid Economy in Face of Decreasing Demand

Interdependencies of Infrastructure Investment Decisions in Multi-Energy Systems—A Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Residential Areas

Potential of Croatian Liquefied Natural Gas (Lng) Terminal in Supplying Regional Natural Gas Markets

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