It could happen to you: how perceptions of personal risk shape support for social welfare policy in the American States

Abstract

Is public support for social welfare programs’ contingent on an individual’s exposure to risk? Prior work has examined whether tough economic times lead people to “reach out” (i.e. become more accepting of government expansion of social welfare programs) or “pull back” (i.e. become less supportive of welfare). However, these studies do not account for the conditional relationship between an individual’s exposure to risk and his or her risk orientation. Using new survey data, we find that an individual’s risk orientation moderates the relationship between risk exposure and public support for welfare spending. When individuals perceive exposure to economic risk, those who are risk averse are highly supportive of welfare expansion; those who are risk acceptant become less supportive. Broadly, these findings suggest that public support for welfare spending is contingent on whether an individual perceives exposure to risk and, if so, the individual’s propensity to tolerate that risk.

Patrimony at Risk: Market Uncertainty and Right-Wing Voting

“…This prediction is similar to what many studies have found: namely, that economic insecurity leads to support for left-wing policies (Cusack et al, 2006; Rehm et al, 2012; Rehm, 2011; Milita et al, 2019; Vlandas, 2019). Sharp increases in financial market risk, in this view, can serve to reduce electoral support for parties with a traditional right-wing profile, thereby generating cycles in patrimonial voting over time.…”

“…Against this background and given the long tradition of research on the relationship between economic vulnerability and opinions on economic policy (e.g., Cusack et al, 2006; Helgason & Mérola, 2017; Milita et al, 2019; Rehm et al, 2012; Vlandas, 2019), we would expect extensive research on how changes in financial market risk affect both policy attitudes and voting behavior. Surprisingly, however, little work has been found to be done in this area.…”

“…My empirical strategy draws inspiration from the approach applied in studies of labor-market risks, especially those that find a relationship between labor-market risk exposure and support for welfare spending (Cusack et al, 2006; Helgason & Mérola, 2017; Milita et al, 2019; Rehm et al, 2012; Vlandas, 2019). According to the authors of these studies, occupational unemployment is a good way to measure exposure to labor-market risks and income shortfalls.…”

Unveiling the Impact of Personality in Lifestyle Solidarity: An Exploratory Study of the Effects of Dispositional Optimism and Risk Orientation

“…Risk-neutrals were the respondents scoring 4. We recoded this variable, as done elsewhere (Milita et al, 2019), so that lower scoring equals greater RAC (3 = 1; 2 = 2 and 1 = 3) and higher scores equals greater RAV (7 = 1; 6 = 2 and 5 = 3). RAC ranges from 1 to 3, with higher values denoting greater risk acceptance and '0' denoting that respondent is either risk-averse or risk-neutral.…”

“…However, risk orientation influences public opinion and preferences for public programs, in general, and for health programs, in particular, remains to be studied. A recent study found that the support for welfare spending was rooted in the individuals' perception of risk exposure conditional on their propensity to tolerate that risk (Milita et al, 2019). In the context of healthcare rationing decisions, the influence of the personality trait of risk orientation is unknown.…”