It Takes Two to Tango: Autocratic underbalancing, regime legitimacy and China’s responses to India’s rise

Mastro, Oriana Skylar

doi:10.1080/01402390.2018.1485567

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Having economic leverages to modernize its offensive capabilities designed specially to counter Chinese and Pakistani threats, India has modernized its army, air force, navy and strategic forces (Mastro, 2019). However, with the development of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) and counter-IBG military response by Pakistan, Indian capability and credibility to execute the CSD remains questionable.…”

Section: Dynamics Of Indian Nuclear Doctrinementioning

confidence: 99%

India’s Doctrinal Modifications: Counterforce Temptations in South Asia

Ali

Sidhu

2021

Journal of Asian and African Studies

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This paper assists in understanding contesting technological capabilities and doctrinal modification between India and Pakistan that are drifting South Asia towards instability, leaving the nuclear deterrence in a dark abyss. Hawks on both sides of the nuclear armed rivals are unprecedentedly chanting threats of nuclear war. More bothersome is the indications of shifting the Indian policy of No First Use (NFU), calls for doctrinal modifications and counterforce temptations. An Indian quest for escalation dominance and Pakistani quest for stability against India is in fact a mutual struggle beyond ‘minimum credible’ to ‘assured second strike’ capabilities.

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Section: Dynamics Of Indian Nuclear Doctrinementioning

confidence: 99%

India’s Doctrinal Modifications: Counterforce Temptations in South Asia

Ali

Sidhu

2021

Journal of Asian and African Studies

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“…Steven R. David () argues that the dominant threat faced by many leaders in the Third World countries is actually from the inside, the domestic politics; thus, they pick their alignment based on the benefits to their internal position and focus their energies more on their most dangerous domestic opponents at the expense of the long‐term security of the state and the general welfare of its population. And as Mastro () further notes, states may commit underbalancing, choosing to pick options that may actually increase their exposure to greater threats, if it may preserve the legitimacy of the regime in the view of the population.…”

Section: The Nature Of Political Threat Underbalancing and Strategimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Steven R. David (1991) argues that the dominant threat faced by many leaders in the Third World countries is actually from the inside, the domestic politics; thus, they pick their alignment based on the benefits to their internal position and focus their energies more on their most dangerous domestic opponents at the expense of the long-term security of the state and the general welfare of its population. And as Mastro (2018) further notes, states may commit underbalancing, choosing to pick options that may actually increase their exposure to greater threats, if it may preserve the legitimacy of the regime in the view of the population. Therefore, it may be possible that a state considers the domestic political cost of balancing the threat too high, and that the population is unwilling to sacrifice the potential economic growth and short-term economic benefits to allocate much resources to finance the long-term security policies (Christensen, 1996).…”

Section: The Nature Of Political Threat Underbalancing and Strategimentioning

confidence: 99%

What Threat? Leadership, Strategic Culture, and Indonesian Foreign Policy in the South China Sea

Sulaiman¹

2019

Asian Politics and Policy

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Why is there no balancing behavior in Southeast Asia vis‐à‐vis what many observers see as a “Chinese threat,” especially in the case of Indonesia? Despite all the concerns regarding the stability of the region, Indonesia is neither strengthening its power projection capability nor building a coalition to address China's growing power in the South China Sea. Indonesia's underbalancing behavior is the result of a strategic culture that influences its military and foreign policy thinking on threat perceptions and economic considerations, limiting the options that Indonesia can take vis‐à‐vis China. As a result, China as a state is not seen as a major, direct, and immediate threat that would warrant immediate action that may in turn jeopardize Indonesia's larger interest. Instead, domestic politics and security—especially public perceptions of how the government's friendship with China may benefit or hurt the government—remains the focus and the priority of the government.

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“…These two variables impact a state's ability to balance. In combination these variables generate a measure of domestic political cohesion, or "state coherence" (Mastro 2019). 3 In short, when these variables align in foreign policy interests and perspectives, we should be able to estimate a degree of state coherence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Underbalancing in a regional world

Hutto

2023

J Regional Security

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This paper adapts underbalancing theory to explain regional powers' decisions when faced with the politics of great power intrusion. The paper finds two situations where regional powers defy expectations and details the causal models using India (1979-1980) and Russia (1996-1999) as illustrative cases. I find underbalancing theory wanting at the regional level. In each case, the regional power performs a variety of diplomatic maneuvers-not limited to balancing and underbalancing-to mitigate the fallout of great power decisions. This is explained by the power asymmetries dividing great and regional powers, both constraining the actions of regional powers while motivating more creative diplomatic practices. It is said that great powers are "Gullivers", tied down by their many responsibilities. This paper tells a different story, in which obstinate great powers make decisions without consideration for the locale where those decisions are carried out. It is the regional powers that are tied down by geostrategic position and regional security externalities. However weak or strong, these externalities create threats too salient to ignore. The findings suggest international political processes and outcomes can only be comprehensible by accounting for regional contexts and regional powers.

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It Takes Two to Tango: Autocratic underbalancing, regime legitimacy and China’s responses to India’s rise

Cited by 8 publications

References 22 publications

India’s Doctrinal Modifications: Counterforce Temptations in South Asia

India’s Doctrinal Modifications: Counterforce Temptations in South Asia

What Threat? Leadership, Strategic Culture, and Indonesian Foreign Policy in the South China Sea

Underbalancing in a regional world

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