Jointly Modeling Drought Characteristics with Smoothed Regionalized SPI Series for a Small Island

Espinosa, Luis Ángel; Portela, María Manuela; Filho, João Dehon Pontes; Studart, Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho; Santos, João Filipe; Rodrigues, Rui

doi:10.3390/w11122489

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…It is widely recommended that drought should be estimated from a regional perspective, because results from different case studies are not necessarily comparable with those from other regions [48,49]. In regional studies, drought indices should be standardized [50] accordingly, and the SPI index has this characteristic.…”

Section: Drought and Aridity Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change Effects on Temperate Grassland and Its Implication for Forage Production: A Case Study from Northern Germany

et al. 2021

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The effects of climate change on agricultural ecosystems are increasing, and droughts affect many regions. Drought has substantial ecological, social, and economic consequences for the sustainability of agricultural land. Many regions of the northern hemisphere have not experienced a high frequency of meteorological droughts in the past. For understanding the implications of climate change on grassland, analysis of the long-term climate data provides key information relevant for improved grassland management strategies. Using weather data and grassland production data from a long-term permanent grassland site, our aims were (i) to detect the most important drought periods that affected the region and (ii) to assess whether climate changes and variability significantly affected forage production in the last decade. For this purpose, long-term daily weather data (1961–2019) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI), De Martonne index (IDM), water deficit (WD), dryness index (DI), yield anomaly index (YAI), and annual yield loss index (YL) were used to provide a scientific estimation. The results show that, despite a positive trend in DI and a negative trend in WD and precipitation, the time-series trends of precipitation, WD, and DI indices for 1961–2019 were not significant. Extreme dry conditions were also identified with SPI values less than −2. The measured annual forage yield (2007–2018) harvested in a four-cut silage system (with and without organic N-fertilization) showed a strong correlation with WD (R = 0.64; p ˂ 0. 05). The main yield losses were indicated for the years 2008 and 2018. The results of this study could provide a perspective for drought monitoring, as well as drought warning, in grassland in northwest Europe.

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Section: Drought and Aridity Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This distribution is sometimes used to determine the appropriate model according to the dataset [51,52]. The SPI is the most used drought indicator worldwide because of its applicability in all climate regimes [49]. Table 1 shows the classification of SPI values.…”

Section: Drought and Aridity Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects on Temperate Grassland and Its Implication for Forage Production: A Case Study from Northern Germany

et al. 2021

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“…Thus, regional analysis has proven to be more efficient for drought management than the punctual approach [35,36]. Regionalization techniques are essential to reduce random fluctuations of a point-based approach and homogenizing drought analysis [37][38][39]. Clustering techniques that consider the point-wise correlation of a temporal series are essential and are increasing in use in hydrological applications [16,[40][41][42][43].…”

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confidence: 99%

Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil

Filho

Martins

et al. 2020

Water

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The 2012–2018 drought was such an extreme event in the drought-prone area of Northeast Brazil that it triggered a discussion about proactive drought management. This paper aims at understanding the causes and consequences of this event and analyzes its frequency. A consecutive sequence of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, at both the decadal and interannual scales, led to this severe and persistent drought. Drought duration and severity were analyzed using run theory at the hydrographic region scale as decision-makers understand impact analysis better at this scale. Copula functions were used to properly model drought joint characteristics as they presented different marginal distributions and an asymmetric behavior. The 2012–2018 drought in Ceará State had the highest mean bivariate return period ever recorded, estimated at 240 years. Considering drought duration and severity simultaneously at the level of the hydrographic regions improves risk assessment. This result advances our understanding of exceptional events. In this sense, the present work proposes the use of this analysis as a tool for proactive drought planning.

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“…The spatial interpolation throughout the river basin was performed using multi-dimension inverse distance weighting (IDW) in ArcMap by Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) [21] to obtain the spatial distribution of SPI [22]. Other approaches to define spatial distribution include using principle component analysis for clustering homogenous regions based on SPI [23].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Location Suitability for Small Reservoirs at the Bodri-Kuto River Basin Based on Spatial Monthly SPI

Suharyanto

Harjanti²,

Sriyana

et al. 2020

Water

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Despite efforts to develop and conserve water resources, almost every year during the dry season, some areas in Central Java province in Indonesia still experience a lack of water, especially in rural villages. These areas require water supply via water trucks and/or portable pumps to obtain water from rivers and groundwater. The Central Java government committed to implementing a program involving the construction of 1000 small reservoirs by 2020 to overcome water shortages. However, the technically ideal sites are mostly privately owned, which requires lengthy and costly land acquisition. To avoid the uncertainty of land acquisition, some small reservoirs were placed on state-owned land, which did not require land acquisition. The consideration of putting more emphasis on state-owned land rather than technically ideal sites for the construction of small reservoirs raise the issue on the location suitability of those reservoirs. In this study, we evaluated the suitability of the location of small reservoirs in the Bodri-Kuto river basin using the monthly standardized precipitation index (SPI). We used rainfall records of 25 stations in the river basin from 2000 to 2016 and analyzed yearly and monthly rainfall data. The yearly analysis shows that the dry conditions (SPI < −0.5) from 2005 to 2009 affected more than half of the rainfall stations (>50%), whereas the rainfall stations that experienced more dry years included Kedung Wungu, Babadan, Bojong, Ketapang, Sekopek, and Podowaras (more than 9 out of 17 years). The monthly SPI shows that during July, August, and September, all the rainfall stations experience moderately dry or worse conditions (SPI < −0.50). Using 25 rainfall stations, we determined the spatial spread of dry conditions using monthly SPI values from July, August, and September. Overlay of the spatial spread of dry conditions with the location of small reservoirs can be used to evaluate the suitability of small reservoir locations. We found that 1 (3%) location is very suitable, 7 (21%) locations are suitable, 24 (73%) locations are moderately suitable, and 1 (3%) location is less suitable. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution of SPI can be used as an additional criterion for evaluating the suitability of small reservoirs’ locations should technically ideal locations be unavailable.

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Jointly Modeling Drought Characteristics with Smoothed Regionalized SPI Series for a Small Island

Cited by 14 publications

References 72 publications

Climate Change Effects on Temperate Grassland and Its Implication for Forage Production: A Case Study from Northern Germany

Climate Change Effects on Temperate Grassland and Its Implication for Forage Production: A Case Study from Northern Germany

Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil

Location Suitability for Small Reservoirs at the Bodri-Kuto River Basin Based on Spatial Monthly SPI

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