Labour Demand Forecasting in Ben Tre Province - An Application of Bvar Model

Abstract

The paper employs BVAR model in labor demand forecasting in Ben Tre province. The data used in the model were collected from 1986 to 2020. Forecast accuracy measured by MAPE and U Theil showed that the BVAR model is appropriate for forecasting labor demand in Ben Tre. In addition, the research findings also show that factors such as exports’ value and capital investment construction and production of manufactured goods have a certain impact on labor demand in Ben Tre while the policy through the GDP deflator is only effective during a period of negative situation such as the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Under normal conditions, the price impact does not work for labor demand of the province. Finally, the study provides some policy implications from the findings.