Land use change: complexity and comparisons

Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Entwisle, Barbara; Walsh, Stephen J.; An, Li; Badenoch, Nathan; Brown, Daniel G.; Deadman, Peter; Evans, Tom; Fox, Jefferson; Geoghegan, Jacqueline; Gutmann, Myron P.; Kelly, Maggi; Linderman, Marc; Liu, Jianguo; Malanson, George P.; Mena, Carlos F.; Messina, Joseph P.; Moran, Emílio F.; Parker, Dawn C.; Parton, William J.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Robinson, Derek T.; Sawangdee, Yothin; VanWey, Leah K.; Verburg, Peter H.

doi:10.1080/17474230802047955

Cited by 99 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Grimm et al 2006;Parker et al 2008). Both generalisation and comparison have been identified as key topics in ABM/LUCC research (Rindfuss et al 2008). Another advantage is that the probabilistic approach used in this framework facilitates the quantification and visualisation of the uncertainty of the modelling process.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

et al. 2009

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Land-use/cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. A common approach to analyse and simulate LUCC as the result of individual decisions is agent-based modelling (ABM). However, ABM is often applied to simulate processes at local scales, while its application in regional studies is limited. This paper describes first a conceptual framework for ABM to analyse and explore regional LUCC processes. Second, the conceptual framework is represented by combining different concepts including agent typologies, farm trajectories and probabilistic decision-making processes. Finally, the framework is illustrated through a case study in the Netherlands, where processes of farm cessation, farm expansion and farm diversification are shaping the structure of the landscape. The framework is a generic, straightforward approach to analyse and explore regional LUCC with an explicit link to empirical approaches for parameterization of ABM.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

et al. 2009

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“…Computer simulations using agent-based models (ABMs) have proven powerful in many disciplines for the study of complex systems (Axtell et al 2002, Parker et al 2003, Deadman et al 2004, in press, Brown and Robinson 2006, Entwisle et al 2008, Evans and Kelley 2008, An 2012, Chen et al 2012, Zvoleff and An 2014. ABM is capable of integrating data from multiple scales, allowing investigation of CHANS while considering feedbacks, heterogeneity, multiple equilibria, and unstable dynamics.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of reciprocal connections between demographic decision making and land use on decadal dynamics of population and land-use change

Zvoleff¹,

An²

2014

E&S

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The effect of reciprocal connections between demographic decision making and land use on decadal dynamics of population and land-use change. Ecology and Society 19(2): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ ES-06243-190231 Research, part of a Special Feature on Exploring Feedbacks in Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) ABSTRACT. Although much focus has been given to the study of land use and land cover (LULC) and population change, studies have tended to focus on relationships in a single direction, for instance, the consequences of changing LULC for population processes, or the consequences of changing population dynamics for LULC. Given the highly coupled nature of human-environment systems, we cannot fully understand these systems without considering reciprocal causality, or "feedbacks." This analysis focuses on the Chitwan District of south-central Nepal, a high priority conservation area, and seeks to address the question of how feedbacks between land use and microlevel human decision making impact the decadal time scale dynamics of population and land-use change. It investigates two feedback loops connecting land use and demographic decision making: agricultural land use -marriage timing; and agricultural land use -fertility. Marriage is closely tied to land use in Chitwan because new households in Chitwan are established primarily after marriage. Fertility is connected to land use because of its linkage with population size and future new household formation. However, prior research in Chitwan has shown that residents of agricultural neighborhoods tend to marry earlier, and to have children sooner after marriage. Using an agent-based model, we compare model outcomes from scenarios with and without these feedback loops. Our results indicate that these feedbacks lead to statistically significant differences in population and in land-use outcomes. However, the sizes of these differences are relatively small in magnitude (less than 8% for the scenarios considered here), even over a 50-year time scale. These findings are a reminder that CHANS researchers must be careful to consider both effect size and significance when considering the policy implications of model outcomes.

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“…It covers an area of 297 km 2 and is situated between 10 • 22 to 10 • 40 N and 37 • 33 to 37 • 50 E. The area is known for its diverse topography with elevation extending from 2100 to 4000 m.a.s.l., and slope ranging from nearly flat to very steep (>45 • ). The mean annual rainfall varies between 1400 and 1600 mm per annum (based on data from three climate stations: Debre Markos, Anjeni and Rob Gebeya).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By applying the PCA using these driving factors, land-use change drivers that capture most of the variations in change for each land-cover type can be identified. Then, comparative significance (initial suitability weight) for each of the associated land-use change drivers was established using Equation (2). The suitability weights show the importance of each suitability factor in determining the land-cover type.…”

Section: Land-use Change Driversmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

et al. 2016

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Land-use and land-cover changes are driving unprecedented changes in ecosystems and environmental processes at different scales. This study was aimed at identifying the potential land-use drivers in the Jedeb catchment of the Abbay basin by combining statistical analysis, field investigation and remote sensing. To do so, a land-use change model was calibrated and evaluated using the SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environment) modelling framework. SITE is cellular automata based multi-criteria decision analysis framework for simulating land-use conversion based on socio-economic and environmental factors. Past land-use trajectories were evaluated using a reference Landsat-derived map (agreement of 84%). Results show that major land-use change drivers in the study area were population, slope, livestock and distances from various infrastructures (roads, markets and water). It was also found that farmers seem to increasingly prefer plantations of trees such as Eucalyptus by replacing croplands perhaps mainly due to declining crop yield, soil fertility and climate variability. Potential future trajectory of land-use change was also predicted under a business-as-usual scenario (2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025). Results show that agricultural land will continue to expand from 69.5% in 2009 to 77.5% in 2025 in the catchment albeit at a declining rate when compared with the period from 1986 to 2009. Plantation forest will also increase at a much higher rate, mainly at the expense of natural vegetation, agricultural land and grasslands. This study provides critical information to land-use planners and policy makers for a more effective and proactive management in this highland catchment.

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Land use change: complexity and comparisons

Cited by 99 publications

References 45 publications

An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

The effect of reciprocal connections between demographic decision making and land use on decadal dynamics of population and land-use change

Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

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