Landslide Activation During the Development of Mountainous Areas

Abstract

The development of mountainous areas for recreation increases the level of risk of activation of dangerous exogenous processes, primarily landslides and mudflows. Water accumulation in the ground in the regions prone to landslides and mudflows is one of the important factors determining the intensity of manifestation of these processes and significantly influencing their characteristics. The paper considers the case of landslide activation at the Gornyi Vozduh ski resort in December 2021. A predicive model is presented for rainfall-induced landslides on saturated soil slopes, whose parameters were adjusted to the conditions of southern Sakhalin. Data on landslides and mudflows within a 30 km radius from the Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk meteorological station were collected to calibrate the model. The predictive model uses data on daily precipitation, pre-event precipitation, and cumulative precipitation. All these data are publicly available allowing model calibration for the conditions of any nearest meteorological station. The daily precipitation threshold for likely landslide and mudflow initiation in the territory under consideration was determined to be 51.4 mm.