Landslide Triggering and Local Rainfall Thresholds in Bradanic Foredeep, Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)

Lazzari, Maurizio; Piccarreta, Marco; Capolongo, Domenico

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-31445-2_88

Cited by 22 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…It is worth considering that the increase in warm temperature coincides with a clearly downward trend in precipitation total (Piccarreta et al ., , ), because the coupled effect of temperature and precipitation trend could imply a likely increase of aridity such as geomorphic processes, landslides (Lazzari et al . ), gully (Lazzari et al ., ) and badlands erosion (Piccarreta et al ., , ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in daily temperature extremes over the Basilicata region (southern Italy) from 1951 to 2010 in a Mediterranean climatic context

Piccarreta

Lazzari

Pasini

2014

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Changes in annual and seasonal temperatures were studied from 18 stations, distributed all over the Basilicata region (southern Italy), for the 1951–2010 period. The analysis is based on high‐quality and homogenous daily minimum and maximum temperatures. Both minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures increase, especially after 1971. Seasonal results show upward trends in Tmin in winter, spring and summer, whereas they show downward trends in Tmin in autumn, especially in the last normal 1981–2010. Tmax also shows upward trends in spring and summer, whereas it tends to decrease during winter and autumn. The intra‐annual extreme temperature range (ETR) index also shows a general positive trend, especially during spring. Eleven indices were used to assess the changes in both the cold and warm tails of the daily temperature distribution. The presence of trends was assessed by means of the Mann‐Kendall test. The results reveal a general upward tendency on warm days (TX90), warm nights (TN90) and tropical nights (T20) especially because of an increase in temperature after 1971. This datum is fully confirmed in summer which is the season mainly responsible for this trend. The annual occurrence of summer days (SU) and very warm days (TX99) is weakly increasing. The majority of cold extremes, i.e. very cold nights (TN1), cold days (TX10), cold nights (TN10), frost days (FD) and ice days (ID) showed negative trends, thus confirming the overall warming trend in the Basilicata region. This negative trend could stem from the strong increase of Tmin during winter, spring and summer.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in daily temperature extremes over the Basilicata region (southern Italy) from 1951 to 2010 in a Mediterranean climatic context

Piccarreta

Lazzari

Pasini

2014

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…For example, in 2004, the Italian government through their National Civil Protection developed a National Early Warning System based on rainfall forecasting and nowcasting as input to threshold models for the forecasting of landslide triggering at regional scale. In southern Italy, Lazzari et al (2013) used a database of 300 well-dated landslides, along with daily rainfall records to identify precipitation thresholds for cumulative 2-, 3-, 5-, 10-, 15-, and 30-day rainfall amounts. This method has been adapted and used in regions of various extent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil moisture and precipitation thresholds for real-time landslide prediction in El Salvador

Posner

Georgakakos

2015

Landslides

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Described is the development of a regional forecasting system for landslide hazard threat level, suitable for use operationally by forecasting and disaster management agencies. The system utilizes spatially distributed operational hydrologic models to estimate depth-integrated soil moisture on basin scales of order 160 km 2 , with forcing of remotely sensed and on-site precipitation data. The depth-integrated soil moisture data and the precipitation forcing are used together with regional databases of landslide occurrence to develop threshold curves in the precipitation/soil moisture space that allow the prediction of landslide hazard threat level on satellite-derived rainfall pixel scales. Predetermined susceptibility maps may then be used together with the real-time prediction of hazard threat level for a particular rainfall pixel to determine the slopes within the pixel that are more likely to fail in real time and to characterize a given pixel as susceptible or nonsusceptible to landsliding for real-time prediction. The operational system development requires global satellite precipitation estimates with short latency, real-time precipitation data from sparse rain gauges in the region, and a regional database of historical landslide events with location and timing information. Parametric databases that support the operational hydrologic model consist of soil texture by depth and land-use/land-cover information. The case study presented is for the country of El Salvador. The study shows the feasibility of the regional system development and the validation of the assumed existence of a threshold curve in twodimensional space consisting of the depth-integrated soil moisture and of the forcing precipitation. The resulting threshold curve, when examined with data from the period 2006-2011 in El Salvador, resulted in warnings of landslide occurrence with frequency that spanned the range between 1 and 5 % of the days for the basins identified to be susceptible to landsliding.

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“…A large number of studies investigated the functional relationship between rainfall events and landslides. One of the main results is the definition of empirical rainfall thresholds, 25 such as intensity-duration, event-duration and event-intensity thresholds, thresholds based on the total event rainfall, thresholds that consider the event rainfall or snowmelt amounts to predict the occurrence of such events (Guzzetti et al, 2008 and reference therein; Lazzari et al, 2013;Segoni et al, 2018). However, this approach is affected by a large number of false positives, and, moreover by a limited physical process understanding (Bogaard and Greco, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of antecedent soil moisture conditions on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides

Lazzari¹,

Piccarreta

Manfreda

2018

Preprint

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Rainfall-triggered shallow landslides have caused losses of human life and millions of euros in damage to property 10 in all parts of the world. The need to prevent such phenomena combined with the difficulty to describe the geo-physical processes over large scales led to the adoption of empirical rainfall thresholds derived from the observed relationship between rainfall intensity/duration and landslide occurrence. These thresholds are generally obtained neglecting the role of the antecedent moisture conditions that should be taken into consideration. In the present manuscript, we explored the role of antecedent soil moisture on the critical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds highlighting its critical impact. Therefore, 15 traditional approaches that neglect such parameter may have a limited value in the early-warning systems. This study was carried out using a record of 326 landslides occurred in the last 18 years in the Basilicata region (southern Italy). Besides the ordinary data (i.e. rainstorm intensity and duration), we also derived the antecedent moisture conditions using a parsimonious hydrological model. 20

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Landslide Triggering and Local Rainfall Thresholds in Bradanic Foredeep, Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)

Cited by 22 publications

References 25 publications

Trends in daily temperature extremes over the Basilicata region (southern Italy) from 1951 to 2010 in a Mediterranean climatic context

Trends in daily temperature extremes over the Basilicata region (southern Italy) from 1951 to 2010 in a Mediterranean climatic context

Soil moisture and precipitation thresholds for real-time landslide prediction in El Salvador

The role of antecedent soil moisture conditions on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides

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