Large scale climate oscillation impacts on temperature, precipitation and land surface phenology in Central Asia

Abstract

Central Asia has been rapidly changing in multiple ways over the past few decades. Increases in temperature and likely decreases in precipitation in Central Asia as the result of global climate change are making one of the most arid regions in the world even more susceptible to large-scale droughts. Global climate oscillations, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, have previously been linked to observed weather patterns in Central Asia. However, until now it has been unclear how the different climate oscillations act simultaneously to affect the weather and subsequently the vegetated land surface in Central Asia. We fit well-established land surface phenology models to two versions of MODIS data to identify the land surface phenology of Central Asia between 2001 and 2016. We then combine five climate oscillation indices into one regression model and identify the relative importance of each of these indices on precipitation, temperature, and land surface phenology, to learn where each climate index has the strongest influence. Our analyses illustrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation predominantly influence temperature in the northern part of Central Asia. We also show that the Scandinavia index and the Multivariate ENSO index both reveal significant impacts on the precipitation in this region. Thus, we conclude that the land surface phenology across Central Asia is affected by several climate modes, both those that are strongly linked to far northern weather patterns and those that are forced by southern weather patterns, making this region a 'climate change hotspot' with strong spatial variations in weather patterns. We also show that regional climate patterns play a significant role in Central Asia, indicating that global climate patterns alone might not be sufficient to project weather patterns and subsequent land surface changes in this region.

New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes

“…Material Fig. S2 and Table S1), and were largely affected by complicated atmospheric circulation patterns (de Beurs and Henebry 2008;de Beurs et al 2018). The SOS trend value in our estimation was about three times the value reported by Garonna et al (2014), more prominent at latitudes over 60°N.…”

Relationship between Water Temperature of Polish Rivers and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

“…Seasonal changes in river water temperature shaped by correlations between positive and negative phases of macroscale atmospheric circulation are presented in only a small number of articles. The significance of this problem for research into relations between macroscale types of atmospheric circulation and climatic and hydrological factors has been duly recognized-among others by de Beurs et al [28]. Its crucial importance is underscored by the fact that these changes are critical for maintaining the ecological function of rivers.…”

“…Research has shown that, in the case of rivers in the Northern Hemisphere, we may observe a seasonal distribution of water temperature, while exceptions to this rule may be the result of weather anomalies or of the impact of anthropogenic factors [2,4,12,19]. High correlations between annual and monthly air and river water temperature values have been demonstrated for various regions, among others in the United States and Canada [16,[20][21][22][23][24], in Asia and Eurasia [25][26][27][28], and in Europe [29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36]. Studies concerning the thermal regime of Polish rivers have also confirmed the existence of significant relations and the impact of air temperature on the variability of river water temperature [4,5,13,[37][38][39].…”

“…Studies conducted in Central Europe have confirmed the impact of various macroscopic types of atmospheric circulation, for example of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, the East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) pattern, the Scandinavian (SCAND) pattern, and of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), on climate features and the hydrological regime of rivers and lakes. The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on air temperature and atmospheric precipitation has been described in detail [8,28,40,[56][57][58], as a macroscopic pattern of atmospheric circulation that determines climatic conditions [59]. Regarding Poland, research into the NAO focuses on, for example, the occurrence of frosty days [60], snow cover [61,62], seasonal river run-off [63], and also water levels, thermal characteristics, and ice phenomena on lakes [64,65].…”

Rangeland vegetation dynamics in the Altai mountain region of Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan and China: effects of climate, topography, and socio-political context for livestock herding practices

“…Pinatubo eruption. Immediate, short-term impacts of sociopolitical change on rangeland dynamics during this transitional period in this region (figure 3) may therefore have been masked by Mt Pinatubo-induced climate disruption whereas over the longer-term, environmental factors were the primary drivers in NDVI dynamics in the region, Yu et al 2003, Julien et al 2006, Propastin et al 2008, Lioubimtseva and Henebry 2009, Kariyeva and Van Leeuwen 2011, Pinzon and Tucker 2014, Dubovyk et al 2016, de Beurs et al 2018.…”