Leaders and Intelligence

Intelligence and Design: Thinking about Operational Art

“…22. Beyerchen,"Clausewitz,Nonlinearity,[66][67][68][69][70][71][72] Another example of an operational approach in which systems theory plays an obvious role is effects-based operations (EBO). Some scholars trace EBO's systems thinking beyond the US Army's Air Corps Tactical School, where, between the twentieth century's world wars, industrial web theory informed the thinking of strategic bombing pioneers.…”

“…66 Analysis is not fortune telling. 67 It cannot predict the future, only estimate it. Complicated problems-those with many interconnected objective and subjective factors-are inherently unpredictable.…”

“…Intelligence assessments support decision making and thus aid the commander by the objective evaluation of plans and policies. 67 Advisors carry a duty to advise honestly, regardless of the popularity of the intelligence at their disposal. 68 For these reasons, strength of character and ethical standards-moral courage-are requisites of effective senior intelligence officers.…”

“…Templer led the collection and analysis of intelligence in support of operations as deputy director of intelligence at the General Headquarters of the British Expeditionary Force in Western Europe from 1938 until 1940. 67 The German army's rapid advance through the Low Countries and the British evacuation from Dunkirk probably left an indelible impression with him on both the advantages and limits of intelligence. In 1946 Templer returned to the War Office as the director of military intelligence.…”

“…66 Ultimately, however, commanders own the operational concept they choose to implement, and it is their intuition that most directly contributes to and benefits from operational design. 67 The process assists them in understanding, visualizing, and describing complex problems and developing solutions. 68 Commanders enhance the quality of their design process.…”