Learning curve analysis of concentrated photovoltaic systems

Haysom, Joan E.; Jafarieh, Omid; Anis, Hanan; Hinzer, Karin; Wright, David J.

doi:10.1002/pip.2567

Cited by 82 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Figure 18 shows the scenario of electricity cost reduction resulting from the development of concentrator solar cells, as predicted by one of the authors 24) in 2003. However, because the CPV global cumulative capacity at present is only 358 MW, the CPV system capital cost is about $3.3=W, 25) which is slightly expensive compared with the flat-plate PV systems, as shown in Fig. 19.…”

Section: Future Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent results for concentrator photovoltaics in Japan

Yamaguchi

Takamoto

Araki

et al. 2016

Jpn. J. Appl. Phys.

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We summarize the Europe-Japan Collaborative Research Project on Concentrator Photovoltaics (CPV); NGCPV Project (a New Generation of Concentrator PhotoVoltaic cells, modules and systems). The aim of this project was to accelerate the move to very high efficiency and lower cost CPV technologies and to enhance the widespread deployment of CPV systems. Seven European partners and nine Japanese partners have contributed to this international collaboration. The following objectives have been reached: 1) a CPV cell with InGaP/GaAs/InGaAs three-junction world-record efficiency of 44.4% has been developed by Sharp, 2) 50 kW and 15 kW CPV plant operations with an average DC efficiency of 27.8% have been demonstrated in Spain (since mid-2012), 3) a new "Intrepid" CPV module with 31.3% efficiency has been developed by Daido Steel, 4) standard measurement of CPV cells has been established by FhG-ISE and AIST, and 46.0% efficiency has been confirmed for the direct-bonded GaInP/GaAs/GaInAsP/GaInAs four-junction solar cell under this project, 5) the fundamental research on novel materials and structures for CPV has also been conducted.

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Section: Future Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent results for concentrator photovoltaics in Japan

Yamaguchi

Takamoto

Araki

et al. 2016

Jpn. J. Appl. Phys.

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“…HCPV systems have been deployed commercially since 2007 at capital costs varying from $2.09 to $10.00/W [3]. Costs have in general declined since 2007, but there has also been considerable variability in the price at which deals were negotiated within a single year (see Fig.…”

Section: Historic Capital Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In [3], we give HCPV deployment volumes for the period 2007-2013. They are likely more robust than the costs because industry players are more willing to disclose the size of a project in MW than the cost in $/W.…”

Section: Learning Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Present and Future Financial Viability of High-Concentrating Photovoltaic Projects

Tomosk

Wright

Hinzer

et al. 2015

High Concentrator Photovoltaics

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Three metrics for the financial analysis of high-concentrating photovoltaic (HCPV) systems are assessed: capital costs for fully installed systems (in $/W), the levelized cost of electricity [in $/kilowatt-hours (kWh)], and the net present value [NPV (in $)]. First, capital costs for HCPV systems are shown to have fallen at a steady rate and are characterised by a learning rate of 18 % with a 90 % confidence interval of 14-22 %. The analysis further combines this learning rate with future scenarios for volume growth rates to provide "lower," "middle," and "upper" projections for future capital costs of HCPV systems. These capital cost projections are used as inputs to the LCOE and NPV calculations, from which present and future project viability is assessed for a number of different project conditions. A case study for an HCPV deployment in Las Vegas exhibited an LCOE of $0.125/kWh in 2014 under the "middle" capital cost scenario, which decreases to $0.072/kWh by 2020. For project locations and situations where electricity rates vary according to different hours of the day, the NPV calculation provides a better assessment of financial viability. A detailed methodology with month-hour computation of revenues was developed and applied to two offsetting case studies: Las Vegas, Nevada (with time-of-use electricity prices for small businesses) and Ottawa, Ontario (with a large business rate structure that depends on peak demand). HCPV provides a good match for peak demand times, and the correspondingly high tariffs improve profitability compared with flat electricity rates. Both case studies exhibited profitability by 2015 (2018) under the "low" ("middle") capital cost scenarios. The research as a whole indicates that HCPV systems are already competitive with other solar energy technologies and in certain locations may already be able to deliver market-competitive electricity costs. As prices continue to fall between now and 2020, many more projects will be profitable in both high-and low-DNI locations depending on the electricity rates and their structure.

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“…World record cell and module efficiencies of 46% and 38.9%, respectively [1,2], have been achieved using MJSCs under concentration. With the increase in global cumulative deployment volume and a consistent decrease in system cost, CPV systems now cost as little as 1 $/W, and the costs continue to fall faster than for traditional photovoltaics systems [3]. However, the necessary use of concentrating optics may result in chromatic aberration and a nonuniform illumination profile across the MJSC, thus reducing its electrical performance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spectrally-resolved measurement of concentrated light distributions for Fresnel lens concentrators

Besson¹,

White²,

Domínguez³

et al. 2016

Opt. Express

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A test method that measures spectrally resolved irradiance distribution for a concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) optical system is presented. In conjunction with electrical I-V curves, it is a means to visualize and characterize the effects of chromatic aberration and nonuniform flux profiles under controllable testing conditions. The indoor characterization test bench, METHOD (Measurement of Electrical, Thermal and Optical Devices), decouples the temperatures of the primary optical element (POE) and the cell allowing their respective effects on optical and electrical performance to be analysed. In varying the temperature of the POE, the effects on electrical efficiency, focal distance, spectral sensitivity, acceptance angle and multi-junction current matching profiles can be quantified. This work presents the calibration procedures to accurately image the spectral irradiance distribution of a CPV system and a study of system behavior over lens temperature. IEEE, 1994), pp. 1791-1794. 7. P. Espinet-González, R. Mohedano, I. García, P. Zamora, I. Rey-Stolle, P. Benitez, C. Algora, A. Cvetkovic, M.Hernández, J. Chaves, J. C. Miñano, and Y. Li, "Triple-junction solar cell performance under fresnel-based concentrators taking into account chromatic aberration and off-axis operation," in CPV8 Conf.

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Learning curve analysis of concentrated photovoltaic systems

Cited by 82 publications

References 22 publications

Recent results for concentrator photovoltaics in Japan

Recent results for concentrator photovoltaics in Japan

Analysis of Present and Future Financial Viability of High-Concentrating Photovoltaic Projects

Spectrally-resolved measurement of concentrated light distributions for Fresnel lens concentrators

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