Left atrial diameter, CHA2DS2-VASc score and type of atrial fibrillation predict pulmonary vein isolation outcome

Abstract

Purpose Pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) is the most effective treatment strategy for atrial fibrillation (AF). This study evaluated Pulmonary Vein Isolation Outcome Degree (PVIOD) as a new semi-quantitative measure for PVI success after a 7-year follow-up and determined predictors associated with PVIOD.Methods We enrolled 117 patients with symptomatic AF who underwent PVI and after a 7-year follow-up applied PVIOD with 4 possible outcomes. PVIOD 1 group included patients with successful single PVI. PVIOD 2 group included patients with efficacy after ≥ 2 re-PV isolation and/or additional substrate modification (ASM). PVIOD 3 group contained subjects with clinical success after PVI±ASM. Patients with procedural and clinical failure were in PVIOD 4 group.Results In multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis PVIOD was independently associated with longstanding persistent AF with paroxysmal AF as referent category: odds ratio (OR) 4.1, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.3-12.8 (P=0.014), left atrial (LA) diameter: OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3 (P<0.001) and CHA2DS2-VASc score: OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0-2.2 (P=0.039). LA size, CHA2DS2-VASc score and AF type predicted 7-year probability for procedural and procedural with clinical failure. LA diameter >41mm (AUC 0.741, 95% CI 0.6-0.8, P<0.001) and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 (AUC 0.718, 95% CI 0.6-0.8, P<0.001) predicted long-term procedural and clinical failure. Conclusion PVIOD is a new classification for PVI success. LA diameter, CHA2DS2-VASc score and AF type are independently associated with PVIOD and predict procedural and procedural with clinical failure after the 7-year follow-up. LA diameter >41mm and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 predict long-term PVI failure.