Legislators Off Their Leash: Cognitive Shirking and Impending Retirement in the U.S. House*

Abstract

Objective This article investigates whether public officials exhibit “cognitive shirking” prior to announcing retirement by changing the way they communicate during their final term. Method I analyze monthly speeches made by members of the U.S. House between the 105th and 109th terms, and collect data on psychological indicators found to indicate changes in cognition. A mixed effect logistic regression examines whether these indicators increase the probability of retirement before the end of the term. Results The probability of retirement is amplified by increases in the level of cognitive inconsistency they display in public speeches. Conclusion Public officials, when deciding whether to retire from politics, display patterns of shifting priorities before and after making their retirement announcement. This suggests that representatives’ justifications for policy choices go through significant reorganization as the electoral connection is severed.