Les vagues de chaleur en France : analyse de l'été 2015 et évolutions attendues en climat futur

Soubeyroux, Jean‐Michel; Ouzeau, G.; Schneider, M.; Cabanes, Olivier; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaëlle

doi:10.4267/2042/60704

Cited by 20 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…15.1b and temperature in France using the method of flow analogues (e.g., Yiou et al 2017). We considered the French national temperature index supplied by Météo France (Soubeyroux et al 2016). This daily index is computed as the average of 30 stations distributed over France and starts in 1949.…”

Section: Flow Analogues and The Role Of Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Exceptionally Warm December 2015 in France Using Flow Analogues

Jézéquel

Yiou

Radanovics

et al. 2018

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Section: Flow Analogues and The Role Of Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Exceptionally Warm December 2015 in France Using Flow Analogues

Jézéquel

Yiou

Radanovics

et al. 2018

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…In Poland, as well as elsewhere in Europe, increasing trends in sunshine duration (among others Norris and Wild, 2007;Sanchez-Lorenzo et al, 2007;Sanchez-Lorenzo et al, 2008;Manara et al, 2015;Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2015) and in air temperature (among others Hoy et al, 2016;Luterbacher et al, 2016;Sippel et al, 2016;Soubeyroux et al, 2016;Vicedo-Cabrera et al, 2016;Muthers et al, 2017;Krzyżewska and Dyer, 2018;Tosic and Putnikovic, 2018;Sinclair et al, 2019;Kejna and Rudzki, 2021;Wibig, 2021) have been observed in the last 40 years. The research results presented in this study on the basis of data from 1971-2020 in Poland show that the growing trends in these two elements have not been consistent throughout the entire studied period: it is not evident in all months of the year, and is spatially varied.…”

Section: Discussion Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…According to the Copernicus Report (2021), 2020 was the warmest year in the history of measurements in Europe and in the world (ex aequo with the year 2016). Other years of the last decade, such as 2012 (Dong et al, 2013;Wilcox et al, 2018), 2015 (Russo et al, 2015;Dong et al, 2016;Hoy et al, 2016;Luterbacher et al, 2016;Ouzeau et al, 2016;Sippel et al, 2016;Soubeyroux et al, 2016;Vicedo-Cabrera et al, 2016;Ionita et al, 2017;Muthers et al, 2017;Krzyżewska and Dyer, 2018;Tosic and Putnikovic, 2018) and 2018 (Sinclair et al, 2019;Twardosz, 2019) were anomalously warm in Europe.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship Between Sunshine Duration and Air Temperature in Poland (1971–2020)

Matuszko

Bartoszek

Soroka

2021

Preprint

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The aim of the work is to characterize the trends of sunshine duration (SDU) and air temperature, which may help understand the mechanism of contemporary climate change and explain its causes. The daily totals of SDU and daily data on air temperature from the years 1971–2020, from 25 synoptic stations in Poland are the basic source data. There was a growing trend in both SDU and air temperature. The series of records of the two variables showed that the points of change in the level of stabilization of the value of SDU and air temperature are close to each other, and confirm known in the literature “global dimming” and “global brightening” periods. The linear regression model confirmed that sunshine duration explains well the variability of, and increase in day-time air temperature in Poland in the April-September period. In turn, changes in sunshine duration during winter have no impact on air temperature trends.

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“…Following this definition, detected HWs can be characterized through their length (number of days) and their mean temperature. A severity index is also defined, adapted from Ouzeau et al (2016) and Soubeyroux et al (2016). For this purpose, 90th (p90) and 99th (p99) percentiles are computed.…”

Section: Heat Wave Criteriamentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat waves in spring from Senegal to Sahel: Evolution under climate change

Sambou

Pohl

Janicot

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study analyses the long-term (1950-2100) observed and projected changes in springtime (March-May) heat waves (HWs) in West Africa under climate change. To that end, 28 climate models participating to the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are considered, after a statistical postcorrection of their biases. A multi-scale approach is proposed, covering the Sahel, Senegal, and three thermally-coherent zones within Senegal. HWs are defined as a sequence of at least three consecutive days above a moving 95th percentile of current temperature distributions. Climate change over Senegal translates into a general shift of the whole statistical distribution towards higher temperature values, with a general stability in the shape of the distribution. Ongoing mean warming could reach +5 C in 2100 under RCP8.5 scenario, implying that coastal Senegal could experience then a mean climate comparable to the hinterland parts today. HWs have increased in intensity, frequency and duration across Sahel and Senegal over the past years, such intensification being higher on recent decades. Future HWs over all regions present intrinsic properties that radically differ from those observed so far. The severity and length of HWs displayed stationary conditions until the late 1990s, but started increasing since then. Projected changes show marked and rapid increase in these variables, the amplitude of which is primarily RCP-dependent, and secondarily region-dependent. For both metrics, the largest changes occur over hinterland Senegal and Sahel. There, under RCP8.5 and after the 2070s, the whole spring season could be considered as a permanent HW lasting 3 months. Along the coast, by contrast, average temperatures are both weaker and more variable, causing more frequent threshold crossings and limiting the duration of HWs. The multi-scale approach used here highlights contrast within Senegal, which constitutes important information for public policy decision-makers and its inhabitants in terms of adaptation to climate change.

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Les vagues de chaleur en France : analyse de l'été 2015 et évolutions attendues en climat futur

Cited by 20 publications

References 8 publications

Analysis of the Exceptionally Warm December 2015 in France Using Flow Analogues

Analysis of the Exceptionally Warm December 2015 in France Using Flow Analogues

Relationship Between Sunshine Duration and Air Temperature in Poland (1971–2020)

Heat waves in spring from Senegal to Sahel: Evolution under climate change

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