Level 1 V.& V. Test Problem 10: Escape of High Explosive Products

Abstract

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The Method of Manufactured Universes for validating uncertainty quantification methods

“…Then create "measured" data by perturbing these output QOIs using an error model. 3. Define an approximate model on which the UQ methodology is to be tested.…”

“…Instead of using the Kennedy/O'Hagan technique to accomplish this, we will use a filtering and weighting method [3] to calibrate the uncertain inputs to the "experimental measurements".…”

“…If we wished to include a 90% confidence interval on the prediction, then we could use the global likelihood weights to determine the predictions corresponding to the 5 th and 95 th percentiles. Figure 13 compares the predictions of this method to a non-weighted average (in which w n =1/N ) at testing slab widths of [3,6,12,20,24,28]cm. The immediate observation is that the weighting scheme has the effect of reducing the 90% confidence margins.…”