Limit to improvement: Myth or reality?

Chang, Yu Sang; Baek, Seung Jin

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.02.010

Cited by 18 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…We found limited studies investigating the development of modern technologies with the same equation (Eq. 1) (Chang and Baek, 2010). The growth rate in time was 0.2 for aircraft development and 0.3 for lighting systems development, which was 100 times faster than traditional technologies within a much shorter 200-year period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…1 Defined geographical regions. This figure illustrates the division of geographical regions that will be analysed in this study (Yan and Yin, 1993) Focused on technologies using socio-economic and political contexts, structured in historical periods Publisher: Tianjing Science and Technology Publishing, China (458 pages) The History of Chinese Agricultural Technologies (Liang, 1989) Focused on different categories of technologies, structured in historical periods Publisher: Agricultural Publishing, China (648 pages) The History of Science and Technology in China-The Agriculture Volume (Dong and Fan, 2000) Focused on the development of agriculture as a discipline, structured according to theories, artificial tools, and the philosophy of agricultural technology Publisher: Science Publishing, China 883 pagesThe Boltzmann's sigmoidal function was employed to model the temporal development trends of agricultural and water technologies in China, which have been widely applied to analyse and predict the development progress of various technologies (Chang and Baek, 2010;Papagiannidis et al, 2015;Stahl, 2015;Rogers, 2003):…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The development of ancient Chinese agricultural and water technology from 8000 BC to 1911 AD

Wei

Head

et al. 2019

Palgrave Commun

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Technology developments have made significant impacts on both humans and the environment in which they live. However, there is limited whole-of-system understanding of ancient technology development. This paper aims to uncover the evolutionary pattern of the ancient Chinese agricultural technology system that focused on land and water mobilisations from 8000 BC to 1911 AD. Our findings show that agricultural technology in China transitioned through an extremely slow, S-shaped pathway, increasing only ten fold in over 8000 years. The technology system was initially driven by tangible tools (40% of growth), then by technological theories and practices that contributed more than 50% of growth. Its development was spatially inclined to the Yellow River then to the Yangtze River region, where over 45% of technologies were developed. This study provides an empirical baseline for comparative studies between pre-industrial and industrial technologies. Greater understanding of the mechanisms of technology development will be required to reorientate technology development for present and future generations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%