Linking Statistics With Testing Policy to Manage COVID-19 in the Community

Hilborne, Lee H.; Wagner, Zachary; Cabreros, Irineo; Brook, Robert H.

doi:10.1093/ajcp/aqaa099

Cited by 19 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…We then investigated whether different HLA-I alleles among populations could be associated with these epidemiologic features. We chose to use death per million inhabitants as the main epidemiological metric as it is the one that varies least depending on the testing capacity or policy adopted by the country studied ( 20 ). To evaluate if the distribution of HLA allele frequencies among populations could explain death per million inhabitants, we performed an unsupervised hierarchical clustering.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Class I HLA Allele Predicted Restricted Antigenic Coverages for Spike and Nucleocapsid Proteins Are Associated With Deaths Related to COVID-19

et al. 2020

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The world is dealing with one of the worst pandemics ever. SARS-CoV-2 is the etiological agent of COVID-19 that has already spread to more than 200 countries. However, infectivity, severity, and mortality rates do not affect all countries equally. Here we consider 140 HLA alleles and extensively investigate the landscape of 3,723 potential HLA-I A and B restricted SARS-CoV-2-derived antigens and how 37 countries in the world are predicted to respond to those peptides considering their HLA-I distribution frequencies. The clustering of HLA-A and HLA-B allele frequencies partially separates most countries with the lowest number of deaths per million inhabitants from the other countries. We further correlated the patterns of in silico predicted population coverage and epidemiological data. The number of deaths per million inhabitants correlates to the predicted antigen coverage of S and N derived peptides and its module is influenced if a given set of frequent or rare HLA alleles are analyzed in a given population. Moreover, we highlighted a potential risk group carrying HLAs associated with an elevated number of deaths per million inhabitants. In addition, we identified three potential antigens bearing at least one amino acid of the four-length insertion that differentiates SARS-CoV-2 from previous coronavirus strains. We believe these data can contribute to the search for peptides with the potential to be used in vaccine strategies considering the role of herd immunity to hamper the spread of the disease. Importantly, to the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to use a populational approach in association with COVID-19 outcome.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Class I HLA Allele Predicted Restricted Antigenic Coverages for Spike and Nucleocapsid Proteins Are Associated With Deaths Related to COVID-19

et al. 2020

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“…These factors are not taken into account in the model, which may result in a certain degree of deviation in the results. Governments need to adopt more effective statistical and testing measures 30 . The world should work together 31 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Modeling Analysis Reveals the Transmission Potential of COVID-19 Asymptomatic Patients:A Prospective Study of Epidemiological Transmission in America

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background:The asymptomatic of COVID-2019 are getting more and more attention from all walks of life. Now, America has become the epicenter of the pandemic, with more reported cases and deaths than other regions of the world. Studying the development asymptomatic populations may play a key role in managing the outbreak effectively. Methods:We propose a new model to predict the course of the epidemic and simulate the transmission of the asymptomatic. The model considers seven stages of infection: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), asymptomatic (A), confirmed (C), recovered (R), dead (D), we named it as SEIACRD. We used a model to study the interaction between asymptomatic patients and viral transmission.Result:Our model confirms that about 12 million people will be infected with the virus. Changes in mortality rates will be volatile, first falling, then rising. Not only the number of patients, but also the spread of the epidemic will be affected by the ability to detect asymptomatic persons. Contact with asymptomatic infected patients also significantly promoted the spread of the virus. But these methods had no significant effect on changes in patient mortality.Conclusion:American Asymptomatic patients have a strong interaction with epidemic transmission. They are no less at risk of transmission than symptomatic patients. In terms of controlling the number of infections, efforts to improve detection capacity are more effective than simply suppressing the spread of the virus. Extensive testing and effective social distancing measures should be taken to protect more people from the virus.

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“…Determining the true prevalence in a population requires testing of randomly selected individuals from the community to ensure the estimates represent the population. 35 As resources are constrained, population sampling with targeted “screening” protocols can help reduce the number of tests required for any given population. 35 In addition, sample pooling has received emergency use authorization for clinical testing and offers another approach to facilitate surveillance by enabling expanded laboratory capacity.…”

Section: Workplace Programsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 35 As resources are constrained, population sampling with targeted “screening” protocols can help reduce the number of tests required for any given population. 35 In addition, sample pooling has received emergency use authorization for clinical testing and offers another approach to facilitate surveillance by enabling expanded laboratory capacity. 36–38 …”

Section: Workplace Programsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A systematic and disciplined approach to population-based COVID-19 viral testing (ie, viral antigen test, PCR test) can be implemented. 35 Because of the high risk for silent spread by asymptomatic and presymptomatic persons, testing programs must include those without symptoms. 13 , 14 A population testing program (at some frequency each week) of a designated population of regular commuters can be implemented at a company worksite, university campus, or other such facility.…”

Section: Workplace Programsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Model for Mitigation of Workplace Transmission of COVID-19 Through Population-Based Testing and Surveillance

Plantes¹,

Fragala

Clarke³

et al. 2021

Population Health Management

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The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is having a widespread impact on societies across the globe. As part of the effort to control transmission in the United States, many businesses either closed or instituted nonpharmaceutical control measures and allowed only essential workers on-site. During summer and fall of 2020, employers began formulating “return to work” strategies designed to mitigate the risk of transmission among employees. On a population level, several countries implemented national testing and surveillance strategies that proved effective in mitigating citizen-to-citizen transmission and contributed to suppressing COVID-19. A crucial component of many such strategies is population-based testing to identify and engage individuals with asymptomatic or presymptomatic infection, which also is relevant to return-to-work strategies. The authors describe an approach that multisite employers might use to help mitigate transmission of COVID-19 in the workplace. This approach leverages a bioinformatics platform informed by real-time PCR test data at the county and subcounty (eg, Public Use Microdata Area) level, allowing for population-based testing to be selectively targeted for employees in geographies with elevated SARS-CoV-2 positivity. A “Command Center” application integrates data from multiple sources (eg, local infection trends, employee symptom diaries, Bluetooth thermometers) in real time, which can be used to inform decisions regarding surveillance and employee self-isolation or quarantine; a mobile phone-based application provides for rapid, secure communication with employees. This overview is based on peer-reviewed literature and the early experience of a large employer with implementing bioinformatics tools to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the workplace.

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Linking Statistics With Testing Policy to Manage COVID-19 in the Community

Abstract: Abstract Objectives To determine the public health surveillance severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing volume needed, both for acute infection and seroprevalence. Methods Required testing volumes were developed using standard statisti… Show more

Cited by 19 publications

References 11 publications

Class I HLA Allele Predicted Restricted Antigenic Coverages for Spike and Nucleocapsid Proteins Are Associated With Deaths Related to COVID-19

Class I HLA Allele Predicted Restricted Antigenic Coverages for Spike and Nucleocapsid Proteins Are Associated With Deaths Related to COVID-19

Epidemiological Modeling Analysis Reveals the Transmission Potential of COVID-19 Asymptomatic Patients:A Prospective Study of Epidemiological Transmission in America

Model for Mitigation of Workplace Transmission of COVID-19 Through Population-Based Testing and Surveillance

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