2020
DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00871-x
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Live Births and Fertility Amid the Zika Epidemic in Brazil

Abstract: In late 2015, the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Pan American Health Organization classified the increase in congenital malformations associated with the Zika virus (ZIKV) as a public health emergency. The risk of ZIKV-related congenital syndrome poses a threat to reproductive outcomes that could result in declining numbers of live births and potentially fertility. Using monthly microdata on live births from the Brazilian Information System on Live Births (SINASC), this study examines live births and fer… Show more

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Cited by 60 publications
(52 citation statements)
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References 53 publications
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“…Historically, economic and health crises have never been preferred periods for a couple to decide to have a baby (e.g., Marteleto et al 2020;Trinitapoli and Yeatman 2011;Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011;Vrachnis et al 2014). Regarding health crises, the evidence shows that during and after major epidemics fertility declines strongly (Stone 2020; see e.g., Yu 2015a, 2015b;Chandra et al 2018 for the Spanish flu, and Marteleto et al 2020 for the Zika epidemic).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Historically, economic and health crises have never been preferred periods for a couple to decide to have a baby (e.g., Marteleto et al 2020;Trinitapoli and Yeatman 2011;Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011;Vrachnis et al 2014). Regarding health crises, the evidence shows that during and after major epidemics fertility declines strongly (Stone 2020; see e.g., Yu 2015a, 2015b;Chandra et al 2018 for the Spanish flu, and Marteleto et al 2020 for the Zika epidemic).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Historically, economic and health crises have never been preferred periods for a couple to decide to have a baby (e.g., Marteleto et al 2020;Trinitapoli and Yeatman 2011;Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011;Vrachnis et al 2014). Regarding health crises, the evidence shows that during and after major epidemics fertility declines strongly (Stone 2020; see e.g., Yu 2015a, 2015b;Chandra et al 2018 for the Spanish flu, and Marteleto et al 2020 for the Zika epidemic). As for economic crises, an overall economic downturn and the loss of jobs create a climate of great uncertainty, which depresses family projects (Adsera 2011;Goldstein et al 2013;Matysiak, Vignoli, and Sobotka 2018;Vignoli et al 2020).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Given that regulation of abortion is governed at a national level, regulated by executive and legislative branches of government, our analyses demonstrate a disconnect between current policy and what women are doing in practice. Even where regulation doesn't permit termination, we know that fertility dropped ( Marteleto et al, 2019 ), and our data validate that some women sought clandestine abortions on account of Zika, or their perceived risk of CZS, and many were unable to do so safely. Official statistics either not exist (eg: El Salvador), or where they do exist (eg: Colombia) are rendered useless because they combine spontaneous and induced abortions, with no possibility of disaggregation.…”
Section: Discursive Conclusionmentioning
confidence: 66%
“…This concern had meaningful effects on reproductive decision making. Marteleto et al show a 10% decline in live birth rates in Brazil between 2015 and 2016, stratified by social class ( Marteleto et al, 2019 ) ( Marteleto et al, 2020 ). Clearly this could have been because of multiple factors, but the suggestion is that one of those might have been women seeking to terminate a pregnancy.…”
Section: The Zika Outbreakmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…By November 2020, 3,563 cases of microcephaly were con rmed in Brazil (7), disproportionately affecting poor, black, rural women (8,9). The Zika epidemic impacted birth rates and fertility (10), and fertility rates declined more steeply among young and highly educated women, which means that the informal recommendation to delay pregnancy was not followed by the group most affected by microcephaly (11).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%