Log-Linear Model and Delivery Load Analysis for Improvements in Water Quality through TMDL in the Gyeongan Stream Watershed, Republic of Korea

Abstract

The effectiveness of implementing the total maximum daily load (TMDL) in the Gyeongan stream watershed was evaluated to assess its impact on water quality. The relationships between water quality and flow rate and load and water quality were reinterpreted using a log-linear model and the delivery load, respectively. To estimate annual water quality trends and analyze the effects of water quality improvement in each parameter, an improved multivariable log-linear model addressing the limitations of the traditional L-Q equation was applied to analyze the relationship between water quality and flow rate, excluding the effects of flow rate and seasonality. The effect of total phosphorus (T-P) was particularly prominent. A new delivery load was developed and applied to address the limitations of the original unit-based delivery load. Evaluations showed that water quality continuously improved across all parameters, and all methods (excluding the influence of flow rate on water quality fluctuations) were highly effective in estimating water quality changes attributable to anthropogenic pollution sources. The analysis of pollutant contributions revealed that managing point sources is necessary for controlling the biochemical oxygen demand and total nitrogen, while point and non-point sources require T-P management. Future policy development should consider this when formulating management strategies.