Logit-model for predicting startup’s venture funding

Abstract

The paper is devoted to deepening the academic basics using forecasting modeling methods to determine the predictors of enterprises’ success. A startup as a form of entrepreneurship is important today due to the ability to maintain the sustainability of the economic system through a flexible response to challenges. The startup’s potential for receiving external, direct venture financing from other economic counterparties is important forits sustainable development and success. The empirical study puts forward two hypotheses. The first one is that successful startups have common features, which are the factors in obtaining venture financing, i.e. predictors of success. The second hypothesis is a continuation of the first one and requires testing the importance of information representation and clarity of future startup results among venture investors, in particular through the information available about the startup’s activity over the Internet. The empirical study is based on data sets about startups in Ukraine over the last decade. The simulation is performed with logit models developed by the authors. The calculation allows us to confirm the identification of factors of direct influence on the startup’s success according to the built models. The ability to obtain venture capital is one of the startup’s characteristics. The logit model is used as the research tool to determine the relevant factors for defining the positive decision of venture investors to provide startup funding. Predictors of obtaining external funding are identified and considered as the prerequisites for the startup’s success in general. According to the research results,the presence of previous investors, the startup’s profit orientation, the startup’s website, and availability of information about its activity in the social network are the important factors for receiving external financing by a startup. Thepaper argues that the startup’s focus on the public good without profit orientation does not stimulate venture investors. Two periods of the startup founding are singled out among the influence signs in deciding whether a startup will receive external financing: before 2014 and after it. The recognizability of a startup became the determining factor for venture financing after 2014 due to the information provided through the Internet. Until 2014, the relationship with large corporations’ clients had been the most important feature for a startup with external venture financing.