Long-Memory and Spurious Breaks in Ecological Experiments

Abstract

The impact of long-memory on the Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) design and a commonly used nonparametric alternative, Randomized Intervention Analysis (RIA), is examined. It is shown the corrections used based on short-memory processes are not adequate. Long-memory series are also known to exhibit spurious structural breaks that can be mistakenly attributed to an intervention. Two examples from the literature are used as illustrations.