Long Term Electricity Forecast: A Systematic Review

Esteves, Gheisa Roberta Telles; Bastos, Bruno Quaresma; Cyrino, Fernando L.; Calili, Rodrigo Flora; Souza, Reinaldo Castro

doi:10.1016/j.procs.2015.07.041

Cited by 37 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“… 19 underscore the lack of available data for identifying technical and behaviour trends for developing quality bottom-up models. To avoid this limitation, many models used for long-term forecasts employ a top-down approach 30 . An emerging group of studies have applied bottom-up archetype and statistical models for climate forecasting 31 32 33 34 35 36 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change

2017

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Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41–87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand.

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confidence: 99%

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change

2017

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“…In addition, 78% of European cities have greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets [3]. Challenges have been raised in the long-term planning and decision making of the energy transition for municipalities in order to reach the emission goals [4]. Especially in the Danish context of our research, the municipality has a key role in the national transition to a fossil-free society because strategic energy planning in Denmark is clearly defined as a responsibility of the municipalities.…”

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confidence: 99%

Fuzzy Ensemble of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods for Heating Energy Transition in Danish Households

Wen

Yan

et al. 2021

Mathematics

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More than 110 countries, including 500 cities worldwide, have set the goal of reaching carbon neutrality. Heating contributes to most of the residential energy consumption and carbon emissions. The green energy transition of fossil-based heating systems is needed to reach the emission goals. However, heating systems vary in energy source, heating technology, equipment location, and these complexities make it challenging for households to compare heating systems and make decisions. Hence, a decision support tool that provides a generalized ranking of individual heating alternatives is proposed for households as decision makers to identify the optimal choice. This paper presents an analysis of 13 heating alternatives and 19 quantitative criteria in technological, environmental, and financial aspects, combines ideal solution-based multi-criteria decision making with 6 weighting methods and 4 normalization methods, and introduces ensemble learning with a fuzzy membership function derived from Cauchy distribution to finalize the ultimate ranking. The robustness of the proposed method is verified by three sensitive analyses from different aspects. Air-to-water heat pump, solar heating and direct district heating are the top three rankings in the final result under Danish national average data. A framework is designed to guide decision makers to apply this ranking guideline with their practical, feasible situations.

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“…Time series and regression analysis are among the major methods used to forecast electric loads, according to Almeshaiei and Soltan (2011) . Esteves et al. (2015) review the literature on long-term electric load forecasting.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of trade with the United States on electric loads in Mexico

Vatter¹,

Suurkask²

2018

Heliyon

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We quantify the relationship between trade with the U.S. and electric loads in Mexico. Exports to the U.S. are highly statistically significant in explaining energy loads and significant in explaining peak loads, both in the presence and the absence of a deterministic trend in loads. These results support the hypothesis that trade impacts industrial load disproportionately. We conclude that a failure to renegotiate NAFTA is an important regulatory risk for buyers and sellers of electricity in Mexico. We offer an approach to adjusting forecasts accordingly.

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Long Term Electricity Forecast: A Systematic Review

Cited by 37 publications

References 10 publications

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change

Fuzzy Ensemble of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods for Heating Energy Transition in Danish Households

The impact of trade with the United States on electric loads in Mexico

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