Long-term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition in Egypt's Energy Sector

Abstract

Egypt has the potential to generate significant amounts of renewable energy, particularly solar PV, concentrated solar power (CSP) and onshore and offshore wind. Its large economy and rapidly growing population mean that the country is facing increasing energy demand. The energy sector is reliant on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, for electricity production and is at risk of locking itself into a high carbon pathway. Globally, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with national energy sectors is a target outlined in the UN’s Paris Agreement. To reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with a higher dependence on fossil fuels, Egypt must consider upscaling renewable energy technologies (RET) to achieve a clean energy transition (CET). This research modelled six scenarios using OSeMOSYS to identify the technologies and policy target improvements that are needed to upscale RETs within the energy sector. OSeMOSYS is a bottom-up, long-term energy system model that applies linear optimisation techniques to determine an array of least-cost technologies to satisfy a defined energy demand. The results showed that solar PV and onshore wind are key technologies to be upscaled to contribute towards Egypt’s CET. The optimal renewable target is the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) 53% of electricity to be sourced from RETs by 2030, which will cost $16.4 billion more up to 2035 than Egypt’s current Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) target of 42% by 2035; it also saves 732.0 Mt of CO2 over the entire modelling period to 2070. Socio-economic barriers to this transition are considered, such as recent discoveries of natural gas reserves combined with a history of energy insecurity, political instability impacting investor confidence, and a lack of international climate funding. The paper concludes with policy recommendations that will enable Egypt to achieve a CET.