Long-term Hydro-economic Analysis Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1.0

Abstract

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human-water systems scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at 0.5° (≈50x50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply-cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, and the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically-realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply-cost curves. We show examples of these supply-cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply-cost curves produced by the model show that most nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than 0.23 USD/m3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under 0.138 USD/m3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell’s outputs with other models to explore coupled human-environmental systems challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multi-sectoral feedbacks.