Long-term hydroclimatic variability over the semi-arid Ethiopian highlands in relation to ENSO and IOD teleconnection signals

Shiferaw, Henok; Girma, Atkilt; Hadush, Kibrom; Mariam, Haileselassie G.; Yazew, Eyasu; Zenebe, Amanuel

doi:10.1007/s00704-023-04450-z

Cited by 4 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…In general, the correlation analysis shows that each zone's monthly and dekadal rainfall is closely linked to both contemporaneous SSTs and the SST that precedes the dekad or month of the season (i.e., one to three-month lag and/or two to three-month moving average). This result agrees with those of Korecha & Barnston (2007) and Shiferaw et al (2023).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…However, the strength of the link and the correlation vary among regions. Diro et al (2008), Gissila et al (2004), Korecha & Barnston (2007), and Shiferaw et al (2023) have drawn similar conclusions. The study highlights the SST regions that have a good correlation with the monthly and dekadal rainfall in the region (Figs.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

“…Rainfall climatology over Ethiopia is predominantly determined by the variability of oceanic SSTs and seasonal changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation systems (Gissila et al, 2004;Gitau et al, 2015;Korecha & Barnston, 2007;Shiferaw et al, 2023;Viste et al, 2013). The spatiotemporal variability of rainfall over the country is attributed to variations in global SST and atmospheric circulation (Segele et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Ethiopia, an attempt was made to establish a seasonal forecast model based on the relationship between historical rainfall and the anomaly of the oceanic SST indices using various statistical approaches (Diro et al, 2011;Gissila et al, 2004;Segele et al, 2009;Shiferaw et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indian Ocean (SEIO) 90 0 E -110 0 E, 10 0 S -0 0 N Pacific Ocean Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) 170 0 W -140 0 E, 5 0 S -Ocean (TSAO) 10 0 W -30 0 W, 0 0 S -20 0 N The station rainfall data sets used for the study were selected on the basis of the 14 homogenous rainfall zones classified byKorecha & Sorteberg (2012) for the entire country (Fig.2a). Most of the northern parts of the country are sensitive to rainfall during the main rainy season, where repeated droughts are common over the regions(Gebrehiwot & van der Veen 2013;Shiferaw et al, 2023). Hence, our study covers the Northeast (NE) rift valley, Northeast (NE) highlands, Northern (N) highlands, and Northwest (NW) highlands, which are presented as Zones I, II, III, and IV, respectively (Fig.2b).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Effects of global sea surface temperatures to Kiremt rainfall in the contrasting topography of northern Ethiopia

Hadush,

Mariam,

Shiferaw

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Studies on rainfall variability in relation to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) effects in arid and semi-arid parts of northern Ethiopia have been less investigated. This paper explores the rainfall variability in relation to SST over northern Ethiopia during the main rainy season "Kiremt” on monthly and dekadal (Ten days) time scales. Daily rainfall records (1988–2017) from 41 meteorological stations were used across four homogeneous rainfall zones in the northern highlands and lowlands of Ethiopia. Correlation analysis and multiple linear regression models were introduced to examine the relationships between global SST and Kiremt rainfall and to predict monthly and dekadal rainfall. The results show that there is a unique rainfall pattern in the contrasting area of northern Ethiopia (< 80mm/month in the lowlands and about 350mm/month in the highland). The variability in sub-seasonal rainfall in the lowlands and highlands is mainly attributed to SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Changes in SST in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans have also had a profound impact on seasonal rainfall variability, regardless of their strength and the lag-time effect. Increasing SST in the western equatorial Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean enhances rainfall over the northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands, whereas warming SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean causes a decrease in monthly and dekadal rainfall. Overall, prediction of monthly and dekadal rainfall variations in the study site performed well with R2 28% − 61%.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%