Long-term premonitory seismicity patterns in Italy

Abstract

Summary. The clustering of earthquakes as a premonition to a strong earthquake in the same region is defined as pattern BG, which is a generalization of patterns B ('burst of aftershocks') and S ('swarm'), described previously (Caputo et al.; Keilis‐Borok et al.); five out of the seven strongest earthquakes in Italy (M± 6.3, 1900–1980) are preceded by pattern BG within 5 yr; and eight out of 11 patterns BG are followed by a strong earthquake within 5 yr; the last pattern BG (1979 November 11) was diagnosed in advance of the Irpinia earthquake of 1980 November 23 (M= 6.5). The statistical significance of pattern BG cannot be tested with the data on Italy alone.

Long Temporal Variation of Seismic Parameters for Seismic Patterns Identification in Greece

“…7 45 hiΜτηπτψιιπιτπι (πτπιΐτπ^·ΠΓπιιτπτηιΓππΐ|ιπτπτι ITTICIιπτπΐ|ΐπττηιΓΠ|τπιτπτπιι " 196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791982198319841985198719881989 1071197219731974197519761977197819791962ISe^ 19841985198719881989 Lg(E"(2/3)] 8.37H…”

“…Πι nnf ιιΤΙΤΤΙι ΓΠΓΓίίΤΤΓΠ irTfT"ilTTm ιΓρΤιιίΓΓΤΤΙ IfTTITl iinnniTTTTi)inTTminjTniin1ïïi|iTiTmirTi|TTiirnTni|nrmi [TnpirTnmi|TTmiiTTT^ 1067196819691970197119721973197419751976111 19771978197919601982198319841985198719881989 Year nTnriirrrrnirfTmirrnTTi irrrmiirrpffimTrnirrrrrriiTnrniii 968 1969 1970 1971 197? 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1383 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 19«!…”

“…Thus several types of seismic patterns have been proposed (Habermann, 1981;Wyss, and Baer, 1981;Keilis-Borok, 1982;Caputo, et. al., 1983 ;Kossobokov and Carlson, 1995;Press and Allen, 1995;Shaw et al, 1997;Shebalin et al, 2000;Giovambatista and Tyupkin, 2000) world wide.…”

Intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

“…Seismic flux is defined as a spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity smoothed by the magnitude-dependent Gaussian kernels (41 (42)(43)(44), the reversal of territorial distribution of seismicity that is activation of relatively quiet faults and quiescence on relatively active faults (45), the rise of seismic activity (10,15,23,46), and the seismic quiescence (17,47,48). The last two patterns are not mutually exclusive, since they take place in different areas and time intervals.…”

Qualitative precursory pattern before several strong earthquakes in Greece.

“…In the overwhelming majority, the study of these precursory patterns were based mainly on the statistical analysis or the spatiotemporal characteristics of the seismicity (Habermann, 1981;Kanamori H., 1981;Caputo et. al., 1983;Papadimitriou and Papazachos 1985;Matthews and Reasenberg, 1988;Eneva and Hamburger, 1989;Shaw, et al, 1992;Romanowicz, 1993;Kossobokov and Carlson, 1995;Press and Allen, 1995;Shebalin et al, 2000;Di Giovambatista and Tyupkin, 2000;KeilisBorok, et al, 2002;Papadopoulos et al, 2002;Tiampo et al;Papadopoulos et al, 2003;Zavyalov, 2003;Papazachos et al, 2004;Baskoutas et al, 2004;Matsumura, 2006;Sobiesiak, et al, 2007;Papadimitriou P., 2008).…”