“Look at Me, I Plan to Quit Smoking”: Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Adolescent Smokers’ Intention to Quit Smoking

Abstract

The tobacco epidemic is one of the leading public health threats the world has ever faced and public health policy that seeks to limit the problem may not only have to target the price of tobacco but also the initiation stage in a smoker’s life – the adolescent stage. This research contributes to the health economics literature by using a Bayesian hierarchical logistic model, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods to empirically identify what drives the intentions to quit smoking among adolescent smokers in Zambia. Results suggest that among the junior secondary school-going adolescent smokers in Zambia, about 63% have plans to quit smoking. We find socio-demographic characteristics and several tobacco-smoking-related factors as the main drivers of adolescent smokers’ plans to quit smoking. Most importantly, we provide insights that could be useful to help adolescent smokers realize their quitting plans.

Determinants of Adolescents' Desire to Quit Smoking in Indonesia: Data Analysis of the 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey

“…Of the 116 respondents, 81 (69.8%) of them had smoked and 56% of them had quit smoking [26]. Another study stated that the level of knowledge of the youth of Mx Club Samarinda 135 about the dangers of smoking to health was included in the good category, which was 25 respondents (83.3%) [27]. This was in line with a study that showed a significant relationship between the level of knowledge and motivation to quit smoking in former smokers in the pulmonary section of the RSU (General Hospital) Siloam Lippo Village [28].…”