Loop Current Eddies as a Possible Cause of the Rapid Sea Level Rise in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

The Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with its densely populated coastline, is one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change and sea level (SL) rise. Over the last three decades, various works have been conducted to assess coastal SL trends around the basin using tide gauge stations, separately from studies dealing with regional dynamical processes. Using altimetry, Argo, and eddy atlas products over the period from January 1993 to December 2020, we have analyzed the regional SL variations in the area to define their characteristics and explore their possible dynamical causes. We observe a mean GIA‐corrected SL rise rate of 4.81 ± 0.85 mm yr−1, which is 25% higher than that of the adjacent Caribbean Sea and 44% higher than that of the global ocean. This result highlights the singular SL evolution in the GOM over the 28‐year study period. Over 2010–2020, the SL trend in the GOM has even accelerated, along with a strong warming of the upper‐layer (0.58 ± 0.17°C), which explains ∼60% of the SL rise rate through the thermosteric effect. Finally, the heat input estimates emphasize the role of the Loop Current eddies as a major contributor to the recent acceleration of SL rise due to upper‐layer warming.