<b>Land Use Transition and Possibility of Climate Change Adaptation by Rice Farmers around the Industrial Estate in Bangkok's Urban Fringe</b>

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has taken place in Southeast Asian megacities located in the lower river delta basins, and a mixed urban-rural land use is being adopted in the urban fringes. Industrial land uses in particular are being mixed with farmlands, including paddy fields and orchards. Urban suburbs, 30-35 km east of central Bangkok, now face the risk of floods and droughts. Therefore, adaptive land and water management is urgently needed. This research focuses on paddy fields as spaces for water regulation and local water management activities against floods and droughts around Lat Krabang industrial estate. The research consists of two parts: 1) spatial analysis using GIS to analyze the appropriate land use arrangement of wetlands that have high resilience to floods and droughts, and 2) hearing survey of rice farmers and other stakeholders on their awareness of future land development and collaborative water management scenarios. We digitized the land use change in the area that had paddy fields to the west of the industrial estate. In this region, adjustment ponds and abandoned areas increased as parts of the waterway disappeared. It is assumed that the farming type changed because of the fragmentation of the waterway and the increase in adjustment ponds. We also interviewed 39 rice farmers, the site managers of the water management company "GUSCO," and the person in charge at the local government's agricultural office. The awareness analysis concerning future scenarios indicated that most rice farmers recognize the importance of paddy field conservation, and many of them who were affected by floods and droughts tend to view the large-scale adjustment pond scenario as meaningless. Furthermore, there is a possibility of GUSCO playing the role of a coordinator for cooperative water management among stakeholders. Based on the spatial analysis, it can be assumed that the current scenario of rice farming is affected by natural land use change and the inner structure of paddy fields. Analyses of the relationship between area ratios of paddy fields and adjustment ponds by current drainage types indicated that both ratios are low in the areas with nature drainage than in the areas with only pump drainage. Furthermore, it can be assumed that rice farmers find it easy to control water intake and drainage with small-scale paddy fields. The rice farmers who have been affected by floods are converged in areas with a higher ratio of adjustment ponds, which can be an adaptation measure against drought. It is suggested that a sufficient number of small-scale adjustment ponds connected to paddy fields can be an important protection measure against floods and droughts.

Long‐term flood exposure assessment using satellite‐based land use change detection and inundation simulation: A 30‐year case study of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region

“…Land inundation is emerging as a pressing global challenge in the wake of climate change (Kundzewicz et al, 2014;Rajkhowa & Sarma, 2021). The trajectory of urban expansion is encroaching on prime agricultural landscapes (Yokota et al, 2020). The repercussions of land change, driven by socioeconomic and biophysical variables, often influence climate-related hazards and increase vulnerability to river flooding (Vadrevu et al, 2017).…”