Renewable distributed generation will be a key component of future power distribution networks. In order to control the voltage conditions for distribution networks integrated with distributed generation (DG) units, it is vital to quantify the impacts of control variables on voltage magnitudes under consumption and generation uncertainties. To do so, we need to run, for each control action, several power flow simulations for various consumption and generation realizations. This is computationally infeasible for systems with many uncertain inputs. In this work, we address this challenge by developing surrogates, or metamodels, that analytically estimate the random voltage as a function of input variables which include random parameters (consumption and generation levels) and control actions (power factors). Specifically, we propose a model reduction method for building these surrogates, which reduces the number of simulations needed for training. This method identifies and includes only the consumption and generation variables that are influential on the voltage at a given bus. Using this 'reduced' surrogate, we then develop a sensitivity-based approach for probabilistic voltage control. We demonstrate the computational efficacy of the control approach on a IEEE 69-bus system with a large number of correlated input parameters. The highlights of computational efficiency in this case study include (1) accurate probabilistic power flow analysis using surrogates constructed by only 500 training simulations for a system with more than 150 random parameters, and (2) successful surrogate-based voltage control approach which only requires 150 additional simulation samples, as opposed to the conventional perturb-and-observe voltage control which needs more than 500,000 samples.INDEX TERMS Distributed generation, distribution network, sensitivity analysis, polynomial chaos expansion.
