LUMINATE: linking agricultural land use, local water quality and Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

Kling, Catherine L.; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Rabotyagov, Sergey S.; Valcu-Lisman, Adriana; Gassman, Philip W.; Campbell, Todd; White, Michael J.; Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Jha, M. K.; Richardson, J.; Moskal, L. Monika; Turner, R. Eugene; Rabalais, Nancy N.

doi:10.1093/erae/jbu009

Cited by 43 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 66 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…The system has already provided the flexibility to analyse a wide range of alternative cropping, management strategies, and/or future climate change scenarios and their impacts on water quality and the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico Kling et al, 2014). The objectives of this specific study are: Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A refined regional modeling approach for the Corn Belt – Experiences and recommendations for large-scale integrated modeling

Panagopoulos

Gassman

Jha

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

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Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US. This region is comprised of two large river basins, the intensely row-cropped Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) and Ohio-Tennessee River Basin (OTRB), which are considered the key contributing areas for the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. Thus, in this area it is of utmost importance to ensure that intensive agriculture for food, feed and biofuel production can coexist with a healthy water environment. To address these objectives within a river basin management context, an integrated modeling system has been constructed with the hydrologic Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, capable of estimating river basin responses to alternative cropping and/or management strategies. To improve modeling performance compared to previous studies and provide a spatially detailed basis for scenario development, this SWAT Corn Belt application incorporates a greatly refined subwatershed structure based on 12-digit hydrologic units or 'subwatersheds' as defined by the US Geological Service. The model setup, calibration and validation are time-demanding and challenging tasks for these large systems, given the scale intensive data requirements, and the need to ensure the reliability of flow and pollutant load predictions at multiple locations. Thus, the objectives of this study are both to comprehensively describe this large-scale modeling approach, providing estimates of pollution and crop production in the region as well as to present strengths and weaknesses of integrated modeling at such a large scale along with how it can be improved on the basis of the current modeling structure and results. The predictions were based on a semi-automatic hydrologic calibration approach for large-scale and spatially detailed modeling studies, with the use of the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) and the SWAT-CUP interface, followed by a manual water quality calibration on a monthly basis. The refined modeling approach developed in this study led to successful predictions across most parts of the Corn Belt region and can be used for testing pollution mitigation measures and agricultural economic scenarios, providing useful information to policy makers and recommendations on similar efforts at the regional scale. RightsWorks produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The content of this document is not copyrighted. Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US. This region is comprised of two large river basins, the intensely row-cropped Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) and Ohio-Tennessee River Basin (OTRB), which are considered the key contributing areas for the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone according to the U...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A refined regional modeling approach for the Corn Belt – Experiences and recommendations for large-scale integrated modeling

Panagopoulos

Gassman

Jha

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

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“…However, given that the hypoxia model we use incorporates the cumulative (up to a 6-y lag; ref. 19) effect of nutrients and nutrient reductions, these percentages are not directly comparable. For example, using 2004 5-y mean hypoxia, uniformly reducing 1999-2004 loads by 19% yields a hypoxia estimate of 5,603 km 2 , which is roughly equivalent to a 32% reduction in N alone for the period 2000-2004 or a dual 27% reductions in N and P. Even with this correction, our findings suggest somewhat lower implied N and P reductions needed to achieve the Action Plan hypoxia goal in expectation, given historic weather variability.…”

Section: Discussion and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…A statistical model of the Gulf hypoxic zone relating the areal extent of hypoxia and May N and P riverine loads described in ref. 19 was used. The model exhibits good in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction success on par with (or better than) several other published models (19).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Cost-effective targeting of conservation investments to reduce the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone

Rabotyagov

Campbell

White

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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A seasonally occurring summer hypoxic (low oxygen) zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico is the second largest in the world. Reductions in nutrients from agricultural cropland in its watershed are needed to reduce the hypoxic zone size to the national policy goal of 5,000 km 2 (as a 5-y running average) set by the national Gulf of Mexico Task Force's Action Plan. We develop an integrated assessment model linking the water quality effects of cropland conservation investment decisions on the more than 550 agricultural subwatersheds that deliver nutrients into the Gulf with a hypoxic zone model. We use this integrated assessment model to identify the most cost-effective subwatersheds to target for cropland conservation investments. We consider targeting of the location (which subwatersheds to treat) and the extent of conservation investment to undertake (how much cropland within a subwatershed to treat). We use process models to simulate the dynamics of the effects of cropland conservation investments on nutrient delivery to the Gulf and use an evolutionary algorithm to solve the optimization problem. Model results suggest that by targeting cropland conservation investments to the most cost-effective location and extent of coverage, the Action Plan goal of 5,000 km 2 can be achieved at a cost of $2.7 billion annually. A large set of costhypoxia tradeoffs is developed, ranging from the baseline to the nontargeted adoption of the most aggressive cropland conservation investments in all subwatersheds (estimated to reduce the hypoxic zone to less than 3,000 km 2 at a cost of $5.6 billion annually).waters are proliferating worldwide, impacting more than 400 coastal marine systems (1, 2). A major cause of their formation and persistence is nutrient pollution (from agricultural, urban, and other sources) delivered from their watersheds. Excess nutrients threaten not only coastal waters (3), but also pose problems within the watersheds (4), diminishing the quantity and quality of the ecosystem services they provide (5-7). For example, 55 percent of US streams are in "poor" condition (4), drinking water supplies are compromised by high nitrate concentrations, harmful algal blooms risk human health, and commercial fisheries are threatened. The second-largest hypoxic zone in the global ocean is in the northern Gulf of Mexico and covers an area averaging more than 14,500 km 2 in the summers of 2004 through 2013 (8). The documentation of this pervasive phenomenon led to the 2008 Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico (9). The Action Plan, a joint federal-state effort, set the goal of reducing the size of Gulf hypoxia to less than 5,000 km 2 over a 5-y period.Current analysis of the sources of nutrient loads from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (hereafter referred to as the Mississippi Basin) into the Gulf indicate that agricultural sources in the watershed contribute 80% of the delivered nitrogen (N) and more than 60% of the delivered phosphorus (P) (10).A number of cr...

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“…A pervasive issue with regard to human impact is eutrophication-the introduction of large amounts of nutrients into ecosystems where blue crabs and other nekton exist. In such a situation, as evidenced in the Gulf of Mexico (Kling et al, 2014) and the Chesapeake Bay (Boesch et al, 2001), the nutrient concentrations can become high enough to force blooms of phytoplankton throughout the ecosystem. After some period, these algae blooms die off.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bi-Directional Waterway Reveals Nutrient Runoff From Cropland

Ozbay

Stone

2018

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Blackbird Creek is the waterway that empties into the Delaware Bay. The lower 21 km of the creek has been shown to have appreciable salinity measurements, suggesting that this portion is influenced by tidal fluctuations. Fourteen sampling stations were established within this lateral range in order to examine the nutrient dynamics of the creek at various points in time. Our objective was to monitor potential changes in water quality conditions, especially on nutrients, in the creek during the day using the low and high tides as the predominating driver for the change. Temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, and salinity were monitored biweekly at each station. Concentrations of dissolved nitrate (NO 3), nitrite (NO 2), ammonia (NH 3), orthophosphate (PO 4), alkalinity (Alk), and turbidity (Tbd) were measured at each station over the course of the field season. Average concentrations were generally low for the nitrogen species: NH 4 = 0.11 mgL −1 , NO 3 = 0.30 mgL −1 , NO 2 = 0.02 mgL −1. Average alkalinity (92 mgL −1 CaCO 3) and turbidity (71 FTU) concentrations were appropriate given the nature of the marsh environment. The average PO 4 concentration, however, was elevated (=0.44 mgL −1). The EPA recommends values under 0.1 mgL −1 for this type of waterway. When considered separately, nutrient concentrations on outgoing tides were elevated relative to nutrient concentrations on incoming tides. Overall, the highest concentrations for all parameters occurred at low tide before the shift to the next incoming tide. This suggests that there are greater nutrient concentrations upstream than downstream. Given that land use in the Blackbird Creek watershed is primarily agricultural, it is likely that upstream pore water input from cropland is influencing the nutrient dynamics of the waterway. This information is key to understanding the efficiency of the riparian buffer system that has been established in the watershed and to allow for opportunities for improvement to mitigate nutrient runoff from agricultural fields.

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LUMINATE: linking agricultural land use, local water quality and Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

Cited by 43 publications

References 66 publications

A refined regional modeling approach for the Corn Belt – Experiences and recommendations for large-scale integrated modeling

A refined regional modeling approach for the Corn Belt – Experiences and recommendations for large-scale integrated modeling

Cost-effective targeting of conservation investments to reduce the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone

Bi-Directional Waterway Reveals Nutrient Runoff From Cropland

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