Management of Information Risks for Complex System Using the «Cognitive Game» Mechanism

Abstract

Purpose of the article: development of mechanisms for solving problems of information risk management of complex systems in conditions of uncertainty and mutual influence of system elements on each other. Research method: game-theoretic mathematical modeling of risk management processes in complex systems based on arbitration schemes and multistep games on cognitive maps. The result: a general model of a complex system (for example, a heterogeneous computer network) is considered, within which the risk manager (risk-manager) carries out effective risk management by distributing the resource at his disposal among its elements (nodes of a computer network). To assess the state of the system elements, functions of local risk are proposed that satisfy certain specified requirements, and to assess the state of the system as a whole, an integral risk function is proposed. It is shown that in the case of independence (absence of mutual influence on each other) of the system elements to find an effective resource allocation, a game-theoretic approach can be used based on an arbitration scheme based on the principles of stimulation and non-suppression (MS-solution). For the case when changes in the level of risk for one element of the system can have a significant impact on the levels of risks of other elements, it is proposed to use game-theoretic models based on the MS-solution and a multistep “cognitive game”.

Influence of the Internal Structure on the Integral Risk of a Complex System on the Example of the Risk Minimization Problem in a “Star” Type Structure

“…For example, [32] solves the problem of managing economic risks for a finite set of enterprises under various scenarios. Another study solves the problem of risk management in a complex system with a given mutual influence of elements by analyzing converging multistage cognitive games [33]. Nevertheless, such studies as the above are extremely rare.…”