Management performance mapping and the value of information for regional prioritization of management interventions

Abstract

22 23 Identifying the locations and settings where technologies are most likely to have important 24 effects can make the most of development or extension efforts. In the context of development 25 and applied ecology, decisions must often be made by policy makers and donors about where to 26 implement projects designed to improve management. Implementation in some regions may 27 provide substantially higher payoffs to investment, and higher quality information may help to 28 target the high-payoff locations. The value of information (VOI) in this context is formalized by 29 comparing the benefits from decision making guided by a set of information and the results of 30 acting without taking the information into account. We present a framework for management 31 performance mapping and for evaluating the value of information for decision making about 32 geographic priorities in regional intervention strategies. In our case studies of Andean and 33Kenyan potato seed systems, we evaluate seed health and yield information from farms, plots, 34 and individual plant observations. We use Bayesian networks and recursive partitioning to 35 efficiently characterize the relationship between these performance measures and the 36 environmental and management predictors used in studies aimed at understanding seed 37 degeneration. These analyses return the expected performance of an intervention for predictor 38 variables mapped across the landscape. We link the scientific process and the learning cycle to 39 the value of information assessments to support a culture of continuous improvement that 40 informs strategic agricultural development. Optimizing yield by reducing disease impacts, and improving seed quality, is a primary goal 123 of many seed system interventions. Governments and institutions with a strong focus on science 124 for development, such as CGIAR, work on a suite of factors linked to seed system health. Farmer 125 training efforts focus on options for disease management and optimal decision-making. 126ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint (which . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/380352 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Jul. 30, 2018International development efforts to improve seed systems seek to increase farmer access to 127 disease-free, disease-resistant, high-quality seed, and improve farmer practices to implement 128 "integrated seed health strategies" ( positive selection is an on-farm management intervention that can provide large yield benefits, 136 e.g. 28-55% increases (mean 32%) (Gildemacher et al. 2012(Gildemacher et al. , 2011. Positive selection is often 137 recommended as part of an integrated seed health strategy. Under positive selection, farmers 138 select healthy appearing plants and mark them for later harvesting of seed potato tubers. 139. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available u...

“Breaking through the 40% adoption ceiling: Mind the seed system gaps.” A perspective on seed systems research for development in One CGIAR

“…Such models can inform economic cost-benefit analysis along the seed value chain, as influenced by the price of clean seed for farmers and threshold values to understand, for example, optimal replacement rates in sweetpotato in the Lake Zone in Tanzania ( Ogero et al, 2019 ); and strategies to limit the spread of invasive pathogens ( Andersen et al, in revision ). Mapping the performance of seed health management strategies in a range of environments can identify locations where investments in extension and farmer support are most likely to be effective ( Buddenhagen et al, 2020 ).…”

User guide to impact network analysis (INA). RTB User Guide

“…How can management performance mapping and the value of information be used to evaluate project intervention locations? (Buddenhagen et al 2020) How do the characteristics of networks of researchers and technology developers, such as crop breeding networks, influence system outcomes? (Garrett et al 2017) How does the willingness-to-pay of individuals in the socioeconomic network influence the network structure?…”

User guide to the seedHealth model as part of the integrated seed health approach. RTB User Guide

“…When mapped data layers for parameterizing the seedHealth model are available, there is the potential for applying management performance mapping using the model (Buddenhagen et al, 2020). Another potential application is for evaluating the effects of phytosanitary thresholds on disease loss (Choudhury et al, 2017).…”