Managing escalation: missile defence, strategy and US alliances

Abstract

Missile defence plays an increasing role in NATO and in most US alliances in Asia, which raises the question of what impact it has on the management of extended deterrence. Extended deterrence relies on the threat of escalation. Since the costs of escalation are different for different allies, the management of extended deterrence is inherently difficult. Missile defence shifts the relative costs of conflict, and therefore also impacts on the alliance bargains that underpin agreement on extended deterrence strategy. Although increased defensive capacity is a clear net benefit, the strategic effects of its deployment and use can still be complex if, for example, missile defence increases the chances of localizing a conflict. The article discusses the role of missile defences for the US homeland, and of the territory and population of US allies, for extended deterrence credibility and the reassurance of US allies in Asia and in NATO. It argues that there is increased scope in strengthening deterrence by enmeshing the defence of the US homeland with that of its allies, and that allies need to pay closer attention to the way the deployment and use of missile defence influence pressures for escalation. In general, missile defence thus reinforces the need for the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia to negotiate an overall alliance strategy.

The Influence of NATO Regional Missile Defense on European Security

“…Almost everywhere this mention goes at the level of separate theses within the framework of articles devoted to more general issues. For example, within the framework of relations between the US and allies in Europe (Früling, 2016;Kühn, 2018), prospects for deploying intermediaterange missiles (Kühn, 2019;Simon, Lanoszka, 2020), Russian long-range high-precision weapons (Johnson, 2017), and the escalate-to-de-escalate doctrine (Kort et al, 2019;Anderson, McCue, 2021;Kroenig, 2018;Kofman, Fink, Edmonds, 2020). There are practically no studies specifically devoted to analysis of the factor of regional missile defense in the context of the actions of the United States and NATO aimed at regional deterrence of Russia in Europe.…”